铁路罐箱乙二醇运输发展研究

Development of Ethylene Glycol Transportation by Railway TankContainers

近年来国内乙二醇市场迅速发展,铁路罐箱乙二醇运量也逐年攀升,为探讨下一步铁路罐箱乙二醇运输的发展方向及投资规模,建立科学合理的数学模型对铁路罐箱、罐车和公路的乙二醇运输进行技术经济比较,得出铁路罐箱在657.94 km以上运距时具有技术经济优势。同时采用指数平滑法预测未来10年铁路罐箱乙二醇运量将达到165910 TEU,提出下一步铁路罐箱乙二醇运输发展应扩大资产规模,提升罐箱市场份额,未来5年应投入5200只铁路罐箱,未来5~10年再投入8500只铁路罐箱。同时延伸物流供应链服务能力,在下游铁路车站附近兴建储罐,将上游工厂库存前移,提高罐箱周转效率。

In recent years,the Chinese ethylene glycol market has developed rapidly,and the transportation volume of ethylene glycol in railway tank containers has been increasing year by year.In order to explore the development direction and investment scale of ethylene glycol transportation by railway tank containers this paper established a scientific and reasonable mathematical model to compare the technical and economic aspects of ethylene glycol transportation by railway tank containers,tank trucks,and highways.It was found that railway tank containers had technical and economic advantages when the transportation distance was above 657.94 km.At the same time,the exponential smoothing method was used to predict that the transportation volume of ethylene glycol in railway tank containers would reach 165910 TEU in the next 10 years.It was proposed that the subsequent development of ethylene glycol transportation by railway tank containers should focus on expanding the scale of assets and increasing the market share of tank containers.In the next five years,5200 railway tank containers should be invested,and another 8500 railway tank containers should be invested in the following 5~10 years.At the same time,it is necessary to extend logistics supply chain service capabilities by building storage tanks near downstream railway stations,moving upstream factory inventory forward,and improving container turnover efficiency.