基于多源信息综合的滑坡稳定性发展趋势评价

Evaluation of Landslide Stability Development Trends Based on Integrationof Multi-source Information

为准确掌握滑坡稳定性,该文以现场勘查成果为基础,先通过传递系数法掌握滑坡目前的稳定状态,再结合滑坡变形数据,利用ISSA-KELM模型和重标极差法分别评价滑坡后续变形规律及发展趋势,并以两者结果对比评价滑坡稳定性的发展趋势。实例分析结果为:滑坡的弱变形区稳定性系数范围为1.11~1.39,强变形区稳定性系数范围为1.03~1.23,处于欠稳定-稳定状态。在变形趋势判断结果中,累计变形序列的Hurst指数范围为0.641~0.821,变形速率序列的Hurst指数范围为0.448~0.506,说明滑坡不同位置处的变形发展特征存在一定差异,但累计变形均呈持续增加趋势,这与变形预测结果一致,因此,综合得出滑坡后续稳定性均会趋于不利方向发展,局部具有较大的潜在失稳风险。

In order to accurately grasp the stability of the landslide,based on on-site survey results,the current stability of the landslide is mastered by the transfer coefficient method,and then combined with the landslide deformation data,the ISSA-KELM model and the re-standardized range method are used to evaluate the subsequent deformation law and development trends of the landslide.A comparative assessment between these methods is conducted to evaluate the landslide stability development trends.The case analysis results indicate that the stability coefficient of the weak deformation area ranges from 1.11-1.39,while in the strong deformation zone,it ranges from 1.03-1.23,indicating a state from marginally stable to stable.Regarding deformation trend assessments,the Hurst index range of the cumulative deformation sequence is 0.641-0.821,and the Hurst index range of the deformation rate sequence is 0.448-0.506,indicating that there are certain differences in the deformation development characteristics at different locations of the landslide,however,the cumulative deformation shows a continuous increasing trend,which is consistent with the deformation prediction results.Therefore,it can be concluded that the subsequent landslide stability will tend towards unfavorable development trends,posing large potential instability risks in some parts.