基于数据包络分析(DEA)模型的陕甘宁地区2004—2020年城市土地利用效率分析

Empirical analysis of spatiotemporal evolution of urban land use efficiency in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region in 2004-2020 based on DEA model

把握城市土地利用效率状况、以最小的城市土地资源投入获取最大的社会经济效益,是深入推进城市高质量发展的途径。本文以陕甘宁地区为研究对象,基于投入、产出和外部环境的面板数据,构建城市土地利用效率影响因素指标体系,综合应用三阶段数据包络分析(DEA)模型测算研究区2004—2020年的城市土地利用效率,从时间和空间角度对研究区的土地利用进行分析。结果表明:(1)第一阶段城市土地利用综合效率为[0.630,1],波动幅度接近50%,显示陕甘宁地区城市土地利用效率存在较大的空间差异性;调整后的城市土地效率值与第一阶段相比均呈现下降趋势,说明如果不考虑随机误差和外部环境的影响,传统DEA模型分析高估了城市土地利用效率值。(2)2004—2020年,陕甘宁地区土地利用效率在时间维度上总体呈上升趋势,在空间维度上陕西综合利用效率最高、甘肃次之,宁夏最低。(3)17年间,城市土地利用效率莫兰指数存在3次正负交替现象,但2012年之后,高聚类范围从陕西省向外扩展。陕西省、甘肃省和宁夏回族自治区土地利用效率空间差异显著,需进一步构建各城市的经济合作机制,推动区域间的共同协调发展和优势互补格局,以期促进研究区城市土地的高效利用。

To grasp the efficiency of urban land use and obtain the maximum socio-economic benefits with the minimum investment of urban land resources is one of the ways to deeply promote high-quality urban development.This study constructes an indicator system for the influencing factors of urban land use efficiency based on panel data from input,output,and external environment,with the region of Shaanxi,Gansu and Ningxia as the research area,the system comprehensively applies the three-stage DEA model to calculate the urban land use efficiency of the research area from 2004 to 2020,and analyzes the land use of the research area from a temporal and spatial perspective.The results show that:(1) the comprehensive efficiency of urban land use in the first stage fluctuates within the numerical range of [0.630,1],and the fluctuation amplitude is close to 50%,indicating that significant spatial differences in urban land use efficiency in the Shaanxi Gansu Ningxia region.Compared with the first stage,the adjusted urban land use efficiency values show a downward trend,which also indicates that the traditional DEA model overestimates the urban land use efficiency values without considering the influence of random errors and external environment.(2) Between 2004 and 2020,the land use efficiency of the study area showed an overall upward trend in the temporal dimension,with Shaanxi having the highest comprehensive utilization efficiency in the spatial dimension,followed by Gansu,and Ningxia having the lowest.(3) Over the past 17 years,the Moran's I of urban land use efficiency has experienced three cycles of positive and negative alternation,but after 2012,the range of high clusters has expanded outward from Shaanxi Province.In general,the spatial difference of land use efficiency in Shaanxi Province,Gansu Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is significant.Therefore,the study area needs to further construct the economic cooperation mechanism of each city,and promotes the coordinated development and complementary advantages among regions to improve urban land use efficiency in the research area.