基于GDELT数据库的全球涉北极事件国家间地缘关系研究

Research on the geo-relationship among countries in the global Arctic-related events based on GDELT Database

随着全球气候变暖,北极地区海冰正以前所未有的速度迅速融化,该地区经济、资源及战略等价值愈加凸显,北极地缘政治问题不断升温。在此背景下,文章基于GDELT数据库,运用数理统计、地层约束聚类、社会网络等方法对2013年第二季度至2022年第三季度的全球涉北极事件国家间地缘关系进行研究。结果表明:①研究期间,全球涉北极事件国家间合作-冲突事件均可划分为两个阶段,与第一阶段相比,第二阶段各国对北极的关注度有所降低,但其中合作仍占主导地位。②全球涉北极事件国家间地缘关系网络呈现以北极国家为中心的“核心-外围”结构。随着中国、英国等北极理事会观察员国对北极的关注不断提升和在事务上的广泛参与,北极在关系网络中的地位有所提升。③全球涉北极事件国家间地缘政治关系呈现出良好发展态势,但部分国家与其他国家存在地缘关系不对等现象,其中俄罗斯与其他国家的不对等现象较为严重。④北极经济、资源及战略价值凸显,地缘政治环境影响,北极地区军事化日益严重,以及北极环境保护观念淡化等因素共同推动全球涉北极事件国家地缘关系演变。

As the global climate warms,the sea ice in the Arctic region is rapidly melting at an unprecedented and unpredictable rate.The economic,resource and strategic value of this region is becoming more and more prominent,and more and more countries are turning their attention to the Arctic,geopolitical issues in the Arctic continue to heat up.In this context,based on the GDELT database,this article uses methods such as mathematical statistics,stratigraphic constrained clustering,and social networks to study the geographic relationship between countries in the global Arctic-related incidents from the second quarter of 2013 to the third quarter of 2022.The results show that:①During the study period,the cooperation-conflict events among countries in the global"Arctic-related"incidents can be divided into two stages.Compared to the first phase,the second phase saw a decrease in the attention of countries to the Arctic,where cooperation still dominates②The global network of geopolitical relations between countries involved in Arctic-related events presents a"core-periphery"structure centered on the Arctic countries.As China,the United Kingdom and other Arctic Council observer states pay more attention to the Arctic and participate extensively in affairs,their network status has improved;③The geopolitical relations between countries in the global Arctic-related incidents have shown a good development trend,but Some of these countries have unequal geographical relations with other countries,especially Russia and other countries;④The economic,resource and strategic value of the Arctic are prominent,the influence of the geopolitical environment,the increasing militarization of the Arctic region,and the concept of environmental protection in the Arctic have potential effects,promote the evolution of geopolitical relations among countries involved in the global"Arctic-related"incidents.