中国医药产品对外贸易空间结构演化与影响因素

The evolution and influencing factors of Chinese foreign trade structure of pharmaceutical products

医药产品是人类生命健康的重要保障和未来经济发展的重要引擎。在国际产业链重塑和新冠病毒感染等突发事件的交织影响下,医药产品发展和对外贸易合作面临愈加严重的挑战。通过中国医药产品对外贸易数据,利用贸易互补指数和面板回归模型,研究2001—2021年中国医药产品对外贸易结构时空演化与影响因素。结果表明:对外贸易规模“起步低,增长快”,贸易逆差不断增大,抗生素最具有比较优势,激素类最具有比较劣势;在空间格局上,中国进口高度依赖于欧美发达国家和地区,出口向欧美稳步拓展的同时也向发展中国家(地区)不断辐散;在影响机制上,贸易国国内生产总值、创新投入和产出、老龄化与多维邻近性和中国医药产品贸易呈正相关,地区稳定程度与之呈负相关,外商直接投资影响不显著。最后从贸易市场的角度对中国医药产业发展提供相关建议。

The development of pharmaceutical products and foreign trade cooperation are facing more and more serious challenges under the intertwined influence of emergencies such as the reshaping of the international value chain and COVID-19 infection.Based on the foreign trade data of Chinese pharmaceutical products,using the trade complementarity index and panel regression model,this paper studied the space evolution and influencing factors of the trade structure of Chinese pharmaceutical products from 2001 to 2021.The results show that the scale of foreign trade"starts low and grows fast",the trade deficit continues to increase,antibiotics have the most comparative advantages,and hormones have the most comparative disadvantages;In terms of spatial pattern,Chinese imports and exports are highly dependent on developed countries and regions in Europe and north America.Developing countries or regions also play a part in Chinese export.In terms of the impact mechanism,the gross domestic product,innovation input and output,aging and multi-dimensional proximity of trading countries are positively correlated with Chinese pharmaceutical product trade,and the degree of regional stability is negatively correlated with it.The impact of foreign direct investment is not significant.At the end of the article,the author provides relevant suggestions for the development of Chinese pharmaceutical industry from the perspective of trade market.