对外直接投资对我国外贸高质量发展的影响研究

Research on the influence of outward foreign direct investment on the high-quality development of Chinese foreign trade

构建外贸高质量发展三级指标体系测算2006—2019年我国外贸发展水平,采用系统GMM回归方法实证检验对外直接投资对我国外贸高质量发展影响的动态效应。研究发现:第一,当期与上一期OFDI均能显著促进我国外贸高质量发展;第二,不同经济区域的回归结果表明,东部地区和西部地区当期与上一期OFDI对我国外贸高质量发展的影响显著为正;中部地区OFDI的促进作用主要体现在上一期;东北地区OFDI的促进作用主要体现在当期;第三,是否为“一带一路”省份的回归结果表明,“一带一路”省份当期和上一期OFDI均能显著促进外贸高质量发展,而非“一带一路”省份OFDI的促进效应仅体现在上一期;第四,“一带一路”倡议实施前,中国31省OFDI对外贸高质量发展的影响仅体现在上一期,“一带一路”倡议实施后31省当期与上一期OFDI均具有显著促进效应;第五,通过检验影响机制发现,当期和上一期OFDI均能通过经济发展质量的传导机制促进外贸高质量发展,上一期OFDI通过逆向技术溢出和劳动力成本促进外贸高质量发展。

China's economy has changed from high-speed growth to a high-quality development stage,foreign trade plays a crucial role in high-quality economic development.Constructs a three-level evaluation system for the development of foreign trade,calculates the foreign trade of high-quality development level from 2006 to 2019,and empirically tests the dynamic effect of outward foreign direct investment on the high-quality development of China's foreign trade by systematic GMM,research find:First of all,current and previous OFDI can significantly promote the high-quality development of foreign trade;Secondly,the regression results of different economic regions show that the current and last period OFDI of eastern and western regions has a significantly positive impact on the high-quality development of foreign trade,central region was mainly reflected in the last period,northeast mainly reflected in the current period;Thirdly,OFDI of the"Belt and Road"provinces can significantly promote the high-quality development of foreign trade in both the current and the last period,while OFDI of non-provinces only promotes in the last period;Fourthly,before implementation of the"Belt and Road",China's OFDI of 31 provinces only had an impact on the high-quality development of foreign trade in the last period,after implementation both current period and the last period had a significant promotion effect;Fifthly,it is found that both current and last period OFDI of promote the high-quality development of foreign trade through the transmission mechanism of the quality of economic,last period OFDI can promote the high-quality development of foreign trade through reverse technology spillover and labor cost.