上海市宝山区2010—2022年手足口病流行趋势和时空分布特征分析

Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Baoshan District,Shanghai City from 2010 to 2022

目的 了解2010—2022年上海市宝山区手足口病流行的变化趋势和时空分布特征,为今后手足口病的防控及相关卫生资源配置提供科学依据。方法 收集2010—2022年上海市宝山区手足口病的监测数据,使用Joinpoint回归模型对其发病率进行趋势分析,采用时空扫描统计分析其时空分布特征。结果 2010—2022年宝山区手足口病发病呈下降趋势(Z=-6.481,P<0.001)。Joinpoint回归分析结果显示,宝山区手足口病有2个显著改变的时间段,分别是2017年2月至2018年7月(月变化百分比11.82%)和2018年7月至2022年12月(月变化百分比-5.77%)。手足口病在宝山区人群中以5岁及以下的人群占比最多(88.04%),发病年龄中位数为3岁,男女性别比为1.49∶1,发病率前3位的街镇依次为顾村镇、杨行镇和大场镇。宝山区2010—2022年共检测到1个手足口病时空聚集区域,聚集时间为2014年4月16日至7月14日,持续90 d。结论 宝山区手足口病2010—2022年发病呈下降趋势,并有2个显著改变阶段;学龄前儿童为高发群体;流动人口较多的地区发病人数较多。

Objective To understand the changing trends and spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease( HFMD) epidemic in Baoshan District,Shanghai City from 2010 to 2022,so as to provide a scientific basis for future HFMD prevention and control and related health resource allocation.Methods Surveillance data of HFMD in Baoshan District,Shanghai City were collected from 2010 to 2022.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of HFMD incidence,and the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics were analyzed by spatio-temporal scanning statistics.Results The incidence of HFMD in Baoshan District showed a decreasing trend from 2010 to 2022(Z=-6.4807,P<0.001).The results of the Joinpoint regression analysis showed that there were two significant changes in HFMD in Baoshan District in the time periods of February 2017 to July 2018( monthly percent change 11.82%) and July 2018 to December 2022( monthly percentage change-5.77%).In Baoshan District,the number of HFMD patients aged 5 years and below accounted for the largest proportion(88.04%),with the median age of onset being 3 years old and the sex ratio of male and female being 1.49 ∶ 1.The top three street towns in terms of incidence rate were Gucun Town,Yanghang Town,and Dachang Town.A total of 1 HFMD temporal and spatial aggregation area was detected in Baoshan District from 2010 to 2022,which lasted for 90 days from April 16,2014 to July 14,2014.Conclusion The incidence of HFMD in Baoshan District from 2010 to 2022 shows a decreasing trend with two significant change phases.Preschool children are the high-risk group,and the incidence of the disease is higher in areas with a large mobile population.