韩国涉台政策的调整、动因与走向

The Adjustment,Motivations and Trends of the ROK's Taiwan-related Policy

随着台湾问题日益成为中美战略博弈的核心议题,美国动员盟国介入涉台问题的趋向更加明显。作为美国的盟国,近年来韩国涉台政策出现了一定程度的调整,体现在涉台言论增加、官员窜台级别提升、涉台军事活动增加、韩台实质性合作加深等方面。韩国涉台政策调整从根本上是受到美国战略牵引的影响,同时也与韩国的外交政策调整、利益诉求、对台关切增加等因素密切相关。韩国涉台政策追随美国,影响了中韩关系的健康发展,也增加了台海局势受外部干预的风险。然而,受美韩利益分歧、中韩关系、国内政治变动等因素的影响,未来韩国涉台政策不会一味追随美国,仍将以不突破一个中国原则的方式柔性或隐性增强韩台关系。

With the Taiwan question becoming a core issue of the strategic rivalry between the United States and China,the U.S.tends to mobilize its allies to intervene the Taiwan question.As an ally of the U.S.,the ROK's Taiwan-related policy has shifted to a certain degree in recent years,which is reflected in the increase of Taiwan-related remarks,the visits by high-level officials to Taiwan region,the frequency of Taiwan-related military activities,and the deepening of substantive cooperation with Chinese Taiwan.The adjustment of ROK's Taiwan-related policy is fundamentally influenced by the strategic pull of the U.S.,and is also closely related to factors such as its foreign policy adjustments,interest demands,and increased concerns about the Taiwan Strait.The ROK follows the U.S.in its Taiwan-related policy,which has affected the healthy development of Sino-ROK relations and increased the risk of external intervention in the issues of the Taiwan Strait.However,due to the differences in U.S.-ROK interests,the stable development of Sino-ROK relations,and domestic political changes,the ROK's Taiwan-related policy will not blindly follow the U.S.in the future,and will still develop its ties with Chinese Taiwan in a flexible or implicit way without breaking through the one-China principle.