土石坝运行安全评价的改进组合赋权-云模型

Improved combination weighting-cloud model for operation safety evaluation of earth-rockfill dams

针对土石坝运行安全评价中指标间相互影响、主客观权重赋值不够合理以及隶属区间模糊性等问题,提出了一种土石坝运行安全评价的改进组合赋权-云模型。以运行期土石坝为对象,构建了土石坝安全评价指标体系,分别采用G1法和改进熵权法对评价指标进行主客观赋权,融合博弈论思想求解最优权重组合系数,并引入云模型理论降低评价过程中隶属区间的模糊性。对某土石坝安全状态进行评价并与两种传统组合赋权法进行了对比,结果表明,3种评价方法的评价结果相近且与实际情况相符,但改进组合赋权-云模型考虑了评价指标间的关联性,运用博弈论思想使主客观权重赋值更加合理,能更客观地反映土石坝的真实运行状态。

Aiming at the problems of mutual influence between indexes,unreasonable assignment of subjective and objective weights and fuzziness of membership interval in operation safety evaluation of earth-rockfill dams,an improved combination weighting-cloud model for operation safety evaluation of earth-rock dams was proposed.Taking an earth-rockfill dam in the operation period as an object,the safety evaluation index system of the earth-rockfill dam was constructed.The subjective and objective weights of each evaluation index were calculated by the G1 method and the improved entropy weight method.The game theory was used to solve the optimal weight combination coefficient,and the cloud model theory was introduced to reduce the fuzziness of the membership interval in the evaluation process.The safety state of an earth-rockfill dam was evaluated and compared with those obtained from two traditional combination weighting methods.The results show that the evaluation results of three evaluation methods are similar and consistent with the actual situation.However,the improved combination weighting-cloud model considers the correlation between evaluation indexes,and the use of game theory makes the subjective and objective weight assignment more reasonable,which can more objectively reflect the actual operation state of the earth-rockfill dam.