兰彻斯特方程在分布式海战背景下的应用

The Application Research of Lanchester Equation in Distributed Maritime Operations

为解决分布式海战背景下海上联合作战系统顶层方案效能评估问题,开展基于兰彻斯特方程的海上分布式混合作战理论模型研究及其应用探索。拟基于经典兰彻斯特方程,考虑分布式海上作战下的分层次作战与混合作战特点,建立考虑远距离打击作战与近距离交战并行的分布式混合海战理论模型,并在时间维度进行了离散化处理,以一组典型海上作战案例来验证理论模型的可行性。仿真结果表明,分布式混合海战理论模型对于初步求解分布式海战问题具有一定帮助;在分布式作战状态下,战场胜负将不只取决于单兵交换率、单一域作战,还将取决于兵力的整体配置部署、联合体系战术决策与体系协同效果等,高低搭配的大小作战编组方案对于制海权争夺大有裨益。所构建的分布式混合海战理论模型对于海上联合作战系统方案的顶层效能评估与兵力结构设计具有一定价值,具有较好的可行性与实用性。

In order to solve the efficiency evaluation problem of top level scheme of maritime joint operations system scheme under the background of distributed maritime operations,the research and the application exploration of theoretical model of distributed hybrid maritime operations based on the Lanchster equation are carried out.Considering the hierarchical and hybrid warfare features in distributed maritime operations,the theoretical model of distributed hybrid maritime operations is established based on the Lanchster equation.And the discretization is processed on the time dimension.The feasibility of the theoretical model is verified by a group of typical maritime operation cases.The simulation example results reveal that the distributed hybrid maritime operation model has a certain help for solving the distributed maritime operations problem preliminarily,and the battleground winning-losing under the distributed warfare state not only depends on single exchange rate and single-domain battle,but also the overall configuration and deployment of forces,joint system tactical decision-making,system coordination effectiveness and so on.Both big and small combat formation scheme with high value and low cost will be great beneficial to the struggle for sea power.The built theoretical model of distributed hybrid maritime operations has a certain value for the top efficiency evaluation of maritime joint operation system scheme and the design of forces structure,which has good feasibility and practicability.