基于改进Event模型的通用航空器碰撞风险分析

General Aircraft Collision Risk Analysis Based on Improved Event Model

随着通用航空的发展,空中交通流量将持续扩大,航空器碰撞风险增加。对Event模型进行改进,将拼接四棱锥碰撞盒代替原长方体碰撞盒,曲面间隔层代替平面间隔层,建立通用航空器碰撞风险模型。最后将塞斯纳172及运5B通用航空器作为实例对所建模型进行验证,结果表明,在两组均采用广义帕累托分布的条件下,改进后Event模型碰撞风险值分别为改进前的31.65%、14.98%,碰撞风险值较改进前大大减少,结果精度更高,能更好地评估交叉航路碰撞风险。

With the development of General aviation,air traffic flow will continue to expand and aircraft collision risk will increase.The Event model is improved by replacing the original cuboid collision box with the spliced quadangular pyramid collision box and replacing the plane spacer layer with a curved spacer layer to establish a general aircraft collision risk model.Finally,Cessna 172 and Yun 5B general aircrafts are used as examples to verify the built model.The results show that,under the condition that both groups adopt generalized Pareto distribution,the collision risk values of the improved Event model are 31.65%and 14.98%respectively,the collision risk values are greatly reducedly than that of before improvement,the results are more accurate and can better evaluate the collision risk of cross air routes.