论不确定性——问题意识及其现代意义

On Uncertainty:Issue Awareness and Its Modern Meaning

伴随着传统世界观的衰落以及现代资本主义的兴起,现代世界中的人们不得不面对一个更加不确定的世界。一场实质性的时空转型揭示了现代社会与前现代社会之间的断裂,而现代性的精神分裂症同时向我们揭示了这一转型之中的连续性和不连续性,并且在一种精神分裂的张力中戏剧性地呈现了二者之间的悖论式的共属一体性,毕竟对于现代社会而言只有实证科学才有资格承担起规划永恒秩序的任务,但也正是这个实证科学在主张那个面向未来的进步主义理想的同时,既不能够提供有关人类社会进步的一般性规律,也无法承担起揭示终极意义的使命。不过不确定性之无法预见并不意味着一种不可知论的窘境,中国传统思想文化有关“势”的思考无疑为我们展现了一种理解和因应不确定性的重要方式,“势”既不是实证科学意义上的必然性的或或然性的,也不是所谓的目的论的,它是不可以规律性的方式加以预见的可能性,它向我们表明在一种天人合一的视野中以权变的理性来把握时势的变化不失为一种可资借鉴的方式,这显然不同于内卷或躺平这样的方式。

With the decline of the traditional world-view and the rising of the capitalism,the modern people have to face a more uncertain world.There is a kind of discontinuity between the modern society and the pre-modern society.But the schizophrenia of modernity has shown us the continuity and the discontinuity in this social revolution and their paradoxically belonging to a whole.After all,only the positivistic science has the legality to describe the eternal law in the modern society,but it can not reveal the law of social progression and the ultimate meaning as it maintains the progressive idea of the future orientation.But the unpredictability of uncertainty does not mean some kind of skepticism.The Chinese thought of the situation-and-tendency(Shi)provides us a kind of method to understand and reply the uncertainty.The situation-and-tendency is not necessary,probable,or teleological,while it is unpredictable possibility.It means we can seize the changing opportunities of the current situation-and-tendency with the expedient reason in the world-view of the unity of human and nature(Tian ren he yi).Such a means is obviously different from the involution and the lying-flat.