资源型城市收缩的精准识别与轨迹模拟

Accurate identification and trajectory simulation of urban shrinkage in resource-based cities

【目的】揭示不同类型资源型城市收缩状态,模拟收缩轨迹,以期为资源型城市转型发展提供理论基础。【方法】以中国116个地级资源型城市为研究对象,运用多维度收缩识别方法,测算不同类型城市收缩强度,拟合收缩过程,分析演化特征。【结果】(1)2000—2020年,中国资源型城市出现人口收缩的有56个(占48.28%),经济收缩的有42个(占36.21%),其中人口与经济双重收缩的城市有26个(占22.41%)。(2)从发展阶段来看,衰退型、成熟型和成长型城市收缩比重高,分别为65.22%、63.49%和60.00%;从资源类型看,森工类、油气类和综合类资源型城市的收缩比例较高,其中森工类城市的收缩尤为显著,80%的城市出现了人口与经济的双重收缩。(3)资源型收缩城市主要分布于丹东—攀枝花线以北,且在东北及陕、甘、晋、蒙等地区集聚。(4)资源型收缩城市其演变轨迹存在一定的规律性,可分为精明收缩与典型收缩两类,典型收缩又细分为收缩显现、收缩推进与收缩显著。轨迹类型为收缩推进的城市数量最多,占比为33.33%;收缩显著轨迹类型主要集中在两类城市,分别为再生型(63%)和衰退型(47%)。【结论】人口与经济双维度测度对资源型城市收缩的识别更为全面,通过对不同类别资源型城市收缩轨迹的模拟与划分可为资源型城市转型发展提供参考。

[Objective] In order to provide a theoretical basis for the transformation and development of resource-based cities,the contraction states of different types of resource-based cities are revealed and their contraction tracks are simulated.[Methods] Taking 116 prefecturelevel resource-based cities in China as the research object,the multi-dimensional shrinkage identification method was used to measure the shrinkage intensity of different types of cities,fit the shrinkage process,and analyze the evolution characteristics.[Results](1) From 2000 to 2020,56resource-based cities in China will experience population contraction(48.28%),42 will experience economic contraction(36.21%),and 26 of them will experience double population and economic contraction(22.41%).(2) In terms of development stage,the proportion of shrinkage in declining,mature and growing cities is higher,65.22%,63.49% and 60.00%,respectively.From the perspective of resource type,the shrinkage ratio of forestry,oil and gas and comprehensive resource-based cities is higher,and the shrinkage of forestry cities is particularly significant,80%of cities have double shrinkage of population and economy.(3) Resource-based shrinking cities are mainly distributed in the north of Dandong and Panzhihua Line,and clustered in the northeast and Shaanxi,Gansu,Shanxi,Mongolia,and other regions.(4) There is a certain regularity in the evolution trajectory of resource-based shrinking cities,which can be divided into two categories:smart contraction and typical contraction,and the typical contraction is further subdivided into contraction appearance,contraction advancement and contraction significance.The number of cities whose trajectory type is contraction propulsion is the largest,accounting for 33.33%.The trajectory types of contraction were mainly concentrated in two types of cities,namely regeneration type(63%) and decline type(47%).[Conclusion] The dual-dimension measurement of population and economy can identify the contraction of resource-based cities more comprehensively,and the simulation and classification of contraction trajectories of different types of resource-based cities can provide references for the transformation and development of resource-based cities.