代建管理下隧道施工方案协商决策研究

Research on Negotiation-based Decision-making of Tunnel Construction Schemes under Agent Construction Management

研究目的:地方铁路代建管理模式下,隧道施工方案的选择不仅受众多客观因素的影响,还受到不同利益关联主体主观偏好的影响,是个复杂的博弈问题。本研究拟建立一个隧道施工方案协商决策模型,解决复杂建设管理模式下隧道施工方案的选择难题。研究结论:(1)隧道施工方案选择需综合考虑工程投资、建设工期、工程实施难度及风险、工程推进及协调难度等客观因素;(2)代建管理模式下隧道施工方案的选择需要综合考虑并平衡业主单位、代建单位、咨询单位等主体的利益诉求;(3)通过引入群组风险决策理论,模拟利益关联主体间对冲突意见的协商博弈过程,建立了基于协商理论的螺旋推进的决策模型;(4)通过案例论证,螺旋推进决策模型能够弥补目前隧道施工方案决策中的不完善之处,有效模拟地方代建模式下的实际决策过程;(5)本文研究可为PPP、EPC等复杂建设管理模式下的方案决策研究提供一定的理论参考。

Research purposes:The selection of tunnel construction schemes under the management mode of local railway construction by proxy is a complex game problem that is influenced not only by numerous objective factors but also by the subjective preferences of different stakeholders.Through this study,it is proposed to establish a negotiationbased decision-making model for tunnel construction schemes to address the selection of tunnel construction schemes under complex construction management modes.Research conclusions:(1)The selection of tunnel construction schemes requires comprehensive consideration of objective factors such as engineering investment,construction duration,implementation difficulty and risks,as well as project advancement and coordination difficulties.(2)The selection of tunnel construction schemes under the construction by proxy management mode requires comprehensive consideration and balancing of the interest demands of various stakeholders,including the owner unit,the construction proxy unit,and consulting units.(3)By introducing the theory of group risk decision-making,simulating the negotiation and game process among stakeholders on conflicting opinions,a decision-making model based on spiral advancement through negotiation theory is established.(4)Through case demonstrations,the spiral advancement decision-making model can compensate for the imperfections in current tunnel construction scheme decision-making,effectively simulating the actual decision-making process under the local construction by proxy mode.(5)The research in this paper can provide a certain theoretical reference for the research on scheme decision-making under complex construction management modes such as PPP and EPC.