天山北坡经济带经济韧性与生态韧性的时空耦合

Spatial and temporal coupling research of economic resilience and ecological resilience in The Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains

如何平衡经济-生态间的关系,以应对外部扰动和冲击,成为促进区域可持续发展的关键。借鉴韧性理论,构建了生态韧性和经济韧性评价指标体系,基于多源数据,利用耦合协调度模型和核密度方法分析了天山北坡经济带经济韧性与生态韧性的时空耦合特征,并探索了各要素对二者耦合协调度的影响。结果发现:①2000—2020年天山北坡经济带经济韧性总体以中等水平为主,呈现天山北坡“中段>西段>南部>东段”的空间分异特征;②生态韧性则总体处于低水平,呈现“西北高东南低”“低值集聚、高值分散”的空间分布特征;③经济韧性和生态韧性一直处于“失调”状态,但逐渐由轻度失调向濒临失调转变,且西段和中段的耦合协调度高于东段和南部;④经济韧性与生态韧性各要素对耦合协调度的影响存在差异,其中经济潜力韧性和生态系统抵抗力对经济韧性和生态韧性耦合协调关系的阻滞作用最强,经济结构韧性和生态系统恢复力对经济韧性和生态韧性耦合协调关系的推动作用最强。通过时空动态分析和关键影响因素的识别,本研究为可持续发展政策提供了综合视角。平衡这两个方面不仅对该地区当前的稳定至关重要,也是确保其在未来挑战中长期生存的关键所在。

How to balance the relationship between economy and ecology to cope with external disturbance and impact has become the key to promote regional sustainable development.This study underscores the importance of understanding the intricate relationship between economic and ecological resilience in the Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains.By using the theory of resilience,this paper establishes a comprehensive framework that integrates both ecological resilience and economic resilience.Based on multi-source data,the study analyzes the spatio-temporal coupling characteristics of economic and ecological resilience using the coupling coordination degree model and kernel density method,and the influences of each element on the coupling coordination degree of the two were explored in the NSEBTM.The results show that(1)from 2000 to 2020,the economic resilience of the NSEBTM is generally at a medium level,showing the spatial trend of“the middle section>the west section>the south part>the east section”.(2)The overall level of ecological resilience remains low,demonstrating a spatial distribution pattern of“higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast”and“aggregation of low values and dispersion of high values”.(3)Economic resilience and ecological resilience have consistently been in a state of“dissonance”,gradually transitioning from a mild mismatch to an imminent mismatch.Furthermore,the coupling coordination degree is higher in the western and central section compared to the eastern section and southern part.(4)The components related to ecological and economic resilience impact differently the degree of coupling coordination.Among them,ecological system resistance and economic potential resilience have the strongest inhibitory effects on the ecological-economic resilience coupling,whereas the ecological system recovery and economic structural resilience have the strongest driving effects.In conclusion,By analyzing the spatio-temporal dynamics and identifying key influencing factors,we provide a comprehensive perspective that can inform sustainable development policies.Balancing these two critical aspects is essential not only for the present stability of the region but also for ensuring its long-term viability in the face of future challenges.