中国新质生产力:区域差距、动态演进与跃迁趋势

China’s New Quality Productivity:Regional Disparity,Dynamic Evolution and Transition Trend

新质生产力作为新的发展动能,是我国应对国际挑战和推动经济转型升级的关键。文章首先基于新质生产力的内涵及特征,构建了新质生产力评价指标体系;然后,测度了2013—2022年我国30个省份的新质生产力水平;最后,采用Dagum基尼系数计算区域差异,并利用核密度估计、空间Markov链分析其时空动态演进和跃迁趋势。结果表明:(1)我国新质生产力水平整体呈“N”型变化趋势,由波动调整期迈入平稳增长期。从区域来看,呈现“东部领先,中部和西部居中,东北落后”的分布格局;从内部动力来看,呈现“高质量>高科技>高效能”的发展趋势。(2)我国新质生产力水平的总体差异随时间推移呈现缩小趋势,总体差异主要来源于区域间差异,其中,中部地区内部差异呈扩大趋势。(3)核密度曲线中心在样本期内整体呈现向右偏移的趋势,且极化特征逐渐减弱。(4)我国新质生产力水平发生转移的概率存在空间依赖性,但在短期内不会出现跨越式跃迁。

As a new driving force of development,new quality productivity is the key for China to respond to international challenges and promote economic transformation and upgrading.Based on the connotation and characteristics of new quality productivity,this paper firstly constructs an evaluation index system of new quality productivity,then measures the level of new quality productivity in 30 provinces of China from 2013 to 2022,finally uses Dagum Gini coefficient to calculate regional differences,and adopts the Kernel density estimation and spatial Markov chain to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution and transition trend.The results go as below:(1)The overall level of China’s new quality productivity shows an“N”type change trend,from the period of fluctuation and adjustment to the period of steady growth.From the regional point of view,it shows a distribution pattern of“the eastern region is leading,the central and western regions are in the middle,and the northeast region is lagging behind”.From the internal power point of view,it shows a development trend of“high quality>high-tech>high efficiency”.(2)The overall gap of China’s new quality productivity level shows a narrowing trend over time,and the overall gap mainly comes from the inter-regional differences,among which the internal differences in the central region show a widening trend.(3)The center of the Kernel density curve tends to shift to the right during the sample period,and the polarization characteristics gradually weaken.(4)There is a spatial dependence in the probability of the transfer of China’s new quality productivity level,but there will not be a leapfrog transition in the short term.