货币政策前瞻性指引对居民消费的影响——兼论居民贷款的中介作用

The Impact of Monetory Policy Forward Guidance on Household Consumption:On the Mediating Function of Resident Loan

前瞻性指引是央行就货币政策取向与公众进行沟通,来引导社会公众预期的一种非常规的货币政策工具。采用措辞提取法量化前瞻性指引,构建带有滞后项的面板回归和中介效应模型,利用2009—2023年我国31个省份的季度面板数据,实证检验货币政策前瞻性指引对居民消费的影响。研究发现,前瞻性指引能够显著影响居民消费,居民贷款在前瞻性指引影响居民消费的过程中发挥着重要的中介作用,前瞻性指引对高收入群体消费的影响效应强于中低收入群体,对耐用品消费的影响显著大于非耐用品,货币政策紧缩时期的前瞻性指引对居民消费的影响大于货币政策宽松时期。

Forward guidance is an unconventional new monetary policy tool used by the Central Bank to communicate with the public on the future monetary policy orientation for guiding public expectancy.By using the wording extraction method to quantify forward guidance and constructing a panel regression and intermediary effect model with lagged items,this study empirically tests the impact of forward guidance in monetary policy on household consumption with quarterly panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2009 to 2023.The study finds that forward guidance can significantly affect household consumption,and residents’loans play an important mediating role in the process.The impact of forward guidance on the consumption of high-income groups is stronger than that on middle and low-income groups,and its impact on durable goods consumption is significantly greater than that on non-durable goods.The impact of forward guidance on household consumption during periods of monetary policy tightening is greater than during periods of monetary policy easing.