海上风电开发潜力与外送经济性分析

Development potential of offshore wind power and economicanalysis of delivery

中国浅海风电开发潜力达17.3亿kW,深海风电开发潜力达18.3亿kW,是亚洲海上风电开发潜力最大的国家。随着漂浮式风机技术的不断突破,海上风电正逐步向深、远海推进,开发与外送成本将快速下降。经测算,2030年漂浮式风电的平准化度电成本将下降到0.28¥/(kW·h),2050年下降到0.14¥/(kW·h)。采用柔性直流输电对漂浮式风电进行外送,到2050年,离岸100,150 km和200 km的输电成本在基本情景下的测算结果分别为0.050,0.059¥/(kW·h)和0.068¥/(kW·h),在技术快速进步情景下的测算结果分别为0.033,0.040¥/(kW·h)和0.046¥/(kW·h)。

China's shallow-sea development potential is 1730 GW,and deep-sea development potential is 1830 GW,making China the country with the largest offshore wind power development potential in Asia.In recent years,with the continuous breakthroughs in floating wind turbines and concerning technologies,offshore wind power is gradually moving towards the deep sea.The development and delivery costs will drop rapidly.According to calculations,by 2030,the LCOE of floating wind power will drop to 0.28¥/(kW·h),and by 2050 it will drop to 0.14¥/(kW·h).The use of VSC-HVDC for deep-sea floating wind power,by 2050,the transmission costs of offshore 100 km,150 km,and 200 km are estimated to be 0.050,0.059¥/(kW·h)and 0.068¥/(kW·h)respectively in the basic scenario.Under the scenario of rapid technological progress,the estimated results are 0.033,0.040¥/(kW·h)and 0.046¥/(kW·h)respectively.