腹膜返折以下直肠癌患者侧方淋巴结转移情况预测模型的构建

Construction of a predictive model for lateral lymph node metastasis in patients with rectal cancer below peritoneal reflection

目的探究腹膜返折以下直肠癌患者侧方淋巴结转移情况并构建预测模型。方法纳入2020年1月至2023年4月该院收治的102例腹膜返折以下直肠癌患者作为研究对象。根据是否存在侧方淋巴结转移(LLNM)分为转移组(n=31)与未转移组(n=71)。对比两组患者一般临床资料、肿瘤病理特征及实验室检验指标[癌胚抗原(CEA)、糖类抗原199(CA199)、中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(NLR)、血小板与淋巴细胞比值(PLR)、转化生长因子(TGF)-α、TGF-β1]的差异。通过Spearman相关性分析及Logistic回归分析筛选出腹膜反折以下直肠癌患者合并LLNM的危险因素,构建预测模型并评价模型的效能。结果转移组患者平均肿瘤最大径、侧方淋巴结短径、低分化患者比例、T3~T4分期患者比例均显著高于未转移组患者(P<0.05),转移组患者平均TGF-α、TGF-β1、NLR水平均显著高于未转移组患者(P<0.05);Spearman相关性分析、单因素及多因素Logistic回归分析表明,低分化、T3~T4分期、肿瘤最大径及侧方淋巴结短径较长、TGF-α、TGF-β1、NLR水平较高均是腹膜返折以下直肠癌患者发生LLNM的独立危险因素(P<0.05);受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析表明,基于上述危险因素构建的预测模型曲线下面积(AUC)为0.915(95%CI:0.847~0.984),具有较高的预测效能。结论发生LLNM的腹膜返折以下直肠癌患者往往肿瘤最大径、侧方淋巴结短径较长,同时患者TGF-α、TGF-β1、NLR水平较高,针对具有上述特征的患者应积极开展侧方淋巴结清扫,并及时监测是否在术后仍存在淋巴结转移,为提高腹膜返折以下直肠癌LLNM的诊断提供一定临床依据。

Objective To explore the lateral lymph node metastasis in patients with rectal cancer below peritoneal reflection and construct predictive models.Methods A total of 102 patients with rectal cancer below peritoneal reflection admitted in the hospital from January 2020 to April 2023 were selected as the research objects.According to the existence of lateral lymph node metastasis(LLNM),the patients were divided into metastatic group(n=31)and non-metastatic group(n=71).The general clinical data,tumor pathological features,laboratory indexes[carcinoembryonic antigen(CEA),carbohydrate antigen 199(CA199),neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio(NLR),platelet/lymphocyte ratio(PLR),transforming growth factor(TGF)-αand TGF-β1]between the two groups were compared.The risk factors of LLNM in patients with rectal cancer below peritoneal reflection were screened by Spearman correlation analysis and Logistic regression analysis,and the predictive model was constructed and the efficacy of the model was evaluated.Results The mean maximum tumor diameter,the short diameter of lateral lymph nodes,the proportion of poorly differentiated patients and the proportion of patients with T3-T4 stage in the metastasis group were significantly higher than those in the non-metastasis group(P<0.05).The average levels of TGF-α,TGF-β1 and NLR in the metastasis group were significantly higher than those in the non-metastasis group(P<0.05).Spearman correlation analysis,univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that poor differentiation,T3-T4 stage,maximum tumor diameter,longer short diameter of lateral lymph nodes,higher levels of TGF-α,TGF-β1 and NLR were independent risk factors for LLNM in patients with rectal cancer below peritoneal reflection.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis showed that the area under the curve(AUC)of the predictive model based on the above risk factors was 0.915(95%CI:0.847-0.984),which had high predictive performance.Conclusion Patients with LLNM and rectal cancer below peritoneal reflection often have longer tumor diameter and lateral lymph node short diameter,and higher levels of TGF-α,TGF-β1 and NLR.Lateral lymph node dissection should be actively carried out for patients with above characteristics,and timely monitoring should be carried out to see if there is still lymph node metastasis after surgery,so as to provide certain clinical basis for improving the judgment of LLNM in rectal cancer below peritoneal reflection.