全球锂资源贸易网络时空演化及其韧性特征

Evolution and Resilience of the Global Lithium Resource Trade Network

文章运用多种复杂网络方法,从长时序尺度刻画了全球锂资源贸易网络时空演化,剖析了全球锂资源贸易网络拓扑结构,揭示了全球锂资源贸易网络韧性。研究发现:(1)全球锂资源贸易规模总体上呈现出先平稳发展、后快速增长态势,碳酸锂贸易规模明显高于氢氧化锂。(2)全球锂资源贸易网络规模和密度持续提升,逐步形成少数核心国主导、等级特征清晰、空间不均衡态势明显的贸易格局。(3)智利和阿根廷是具有全球影响力的锂资源出口国,中国、日本、韩国、美国、德国、荷兰、比利时、俄罗斯和加拿大等国长期占据核心地位。(4)全球锂资源贸易网络骨干结构不断丰富与拓展,呈现出以少数国家为核心节点、连通区域贸易集团的发展态势。(5)全球锂资源贸易网络韧性呈下降趋势,少数国家和贸易联系对锂资源贸易网络结构连通性具有决定性作用,遭受冲击后锂资源贸易网络存在崩溃的危机。基于研究结果,文章提出了一些促进我国锂资源贸易合作、保障锂资源供应安全的政策建议。

This study employs various complex network methods to characterize the evolution of the global lithium resource trade network on a long-time scale,analyze the network's topological structure,and reveal its resilience.The findings include as follows:1)The overall scale of global lithium resource trade shows a steady development followed by rapid growth,with lithium carbonate trade obviously surpassing lithium hydroxide.2)The scale and density of global lithium resource trade network continue to increase,gradually form a trade pattern dominated by a few core countries,characterized by clear hierarchical features and spatial imbalance.3)Chile and Argentina are exporters of lithium resources with global influence.China,Japan,South Korea,the United States,Germany,the Netherlands,Belgium,Russia,and Canada have long-term core positions.4)The backbone structure of the global lithium resource trade network is continually enriched and expanded,demonstrating a development trend with a few countries as core nodes connecting regional trade groups.5)The resilience of the global lithium resource trade network is declining,with a few countries and trade relations playing a decisive role in the network's structural connectivity.There is a crisis of potential collapse in the lithium resource trade network after facing shocks.Based on the above,this paper proposes policy recommendations to promote China's lithium resource trade cooperation and ensure the security of lithium resource supply.