“一带一路”倡议对国内沿线城市的碳排放效应研究

The Carbon Emission Effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on Cities along the Domestic Route

推动共建“一带一路”高质量发展是实现高水平对外开放、构建新发展格局的重要举措之一,科学评估“一带一路”倡议对国内沿线城市的碳排放效应对推动我国共建“一带一路”高质量发展和如期实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。文章运用双重差分法考察了2007—2017年“一带一路”倡议对我国国内沿线城市碳排放强度的影响及作用机制。研究发现:(1)“一带一路”倡议显著提高了国内沿线城市的碳排放强度。(2)机制分析表明,“一带一路”倡议主要通过促进出口碳密集化和产业结构扭曲推升了国内沿线城市的碳排放强度。(3)异质性分析表明,“一带一路”倡议的碳排放效应主要存在于我国东部城市、中心城市和非资源型城市。中国作为“一带一路”沿线最大的商品生产国和出口国,在满足其他沿线国家需求的同时也承担了一定的碳排放压力。

Promoting the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative is one of the important measures to achieve high-level opening up and build a new development pattern.Scientific assessment of the environmental effect of the Belt and Road Initiative is of great significance to promote the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative.This paper uses the difference-in-differences method to test the effect and mechanism of the Belt and Road Initiative on carbon intensity of cities along the route in China from 2007 to 2017.The results are as follows:1)The Belt and Road Initiative has significantly increased the carbon emission intensity of cities along the route in China.2)Mechanism test reveals that the Belt and Road Initiative mainly elevates the carbon emission intensity of domestic cities along the route by promoting the carbon-intensive exports and distorting the industrial structure.3)Heterogeneity analysis shows that the increase in carbon emissions resulting from participation in the Belt and Road Initiative mainly occurs in eastern cities,central cities,and non-resource-based cities in China.As the largest producer and exporter of goods along the Belt and Road,China is under certain carbon emission pressures while meeting the needs of other countries along the Belt and Road.