中国绿色债券发展的国际比较:评估与动因探索

International Comparison of China's Green Bond Development:Evaluation,and Determinants Exploration

碳中和背景下,作为低碳项目针对性融资途径的绿色债券迎来了迅速发展的历史机遇期。为了对比了解中国绿色债券发展的现实情况,本文采用62个经济体2014-2020年的绿色债券发行记录数据对各国(地区)绿色债券发展程度水平进行了系统性评估,并通过聚类分析对各国(地区)情况进行归纳,以及探索各国(地区)绿色债券发展存在差异的动因。结果表明,全球绿色债券发展水平与速度各异,能够明显聚类出绿色债券发展的四个梯队。中国大体上位居全球绿色债券发展的第二梯度、发展速度较快。绿色债券发展的驱动因素主要包括宏观经济基本面、金融体系制度以及绿色低碳转型环境三个方面,并且上述因素对绿色债券发展成熟度的聚类结果同样能够产生显著影响。最后,本文为我国把握全球绿色债券发展态势,优化绿色债券发展路径,进而为推动绿色债券支撑碳中和进程提供了政策启示。

As a targeted financing channel for green and low-carbon projects,green bonds have developed rapidly around the world,but there are some different specific conditions for each country.However,the existing literature lacks an assessment and analysis of green bond development at the national level.This knowledge gap obstructs understanding the development trend of China's green bonds from a global perspective.So,it is crucial to comprehensively evaluate the global green bond development level and detect the determinants behind the differences among economies.In this paper,the green bond issuance record data of 62 countries or regions from 2014 to 2020 are collected to conduct comprehensive empirical research.With the application of the principal components analysis method,a systematic assessment of the green bond development in various economies is conducted firstly;then,some national clusters are obtained through the K-means cluster algorithm,which suggests some heterogeneities and homogeneities for different economies;To detect the rationales for the global differences in the development of green bonds,multiple linear regression,and ordinal Probit model are utilized sequentially.The empirical results show that the different economies display different levels and speeds in developing green bonds.Three categories of determinants could affect the development level of green bonds in a country,namely macroeconomic fundamentals,financial system,and low-carbon transition environment.Regarding specific determinants,the intensity of targeted green bond promotion policies is the most critical driving force for the development of green bonds.Some targeted policy recommendations are provided for China,in the field of capturing the development tendency of global green bonds,optimizing the development path of green bonds,and promoting green bonds to support the carbon-neutral actions.Additionally,this paper fills the current research blank in evaluating the development of green bond,whose conclusions can effectively support further exploration of this emerging domain.