2016—2022年湖南省毒蘑菇中毒空间相关分析及影响因素

Spatial correlation analysis and influencing factors of toxic mushroom poisoning in Hunan Province from 2016 to 2022

目的了解2016—2022年湖南省毒蘑菇中毒发生规律及流行病学特征,探究其空间分布特征,为预防湖南省蘑菇中毒事件提供科学依据。方法收集2016—2022年湖南省毒蘑菇中毒事件数据,利用SPSS 19.0软件进行相关分析,用ArcGIS 10.2软件进行全局空间自相关分析和局部空间自相关分析。结果2016—2022年湖南省毒蘑菇中毒事件病例存在空间聚集性(Moran’s I=0.231522,P<0.05);局部空间自相关结果显示,中毒发生的热点区域主要集中在湘中及湘南,冷点区域主要集中在湘北。2016—2022年湖南省共暴发毒蘑菇中毒事件1685起,累计发病人数5464例,死亡人数79例;5—10月既是湖南省毒蘑菇中毒事件的高发期,占所有毒蘑菇中毒事件数的92.23%,也是发病人数的高峰期,占所有毒蘑菇中毒发病人数的91.23%。结论2016—2022年湖南省毒蘑菇中毒事件具有空间聚集性,且有重点发生区域,温度和降水在一定程度上影响毒蘑菇生长,与毒蘑菇中毒存在正相关关系,应针对特定地区在中毒高发期进行气象预警防控,加强宣传警示教育,以减少中毒事件发生。

Objective To understand the occurrence pattern and epidemiological characteristics of poisonous mushroom poisoning in Hunan Province from 2016 to 2022,and explore its spatial distribution characteristics,so as to provide scientific basis for preventing mushroom poisoning incidents in Hunan Province.Methods Data of mushroom poisoning incidents in all counties of Hunan Province from 2016 to 2022 were collected.SPSS 19.0 was used for correlation analysis and ArcGIS 10.2 was used for global spatial autocorrelation analysis and local spatial autocorrelation analysis.Results There was a spatial clustering of mushroom poisoning cases in Hunan Province from 2016 to 2022(Moran's I=0.231522,P<0.05).The results of local spatial autocorrelation showed that the hot spots of poisoning mainly concentrated in central and southern Hunan,and the cold spots mainly concentrated in northern Hunan.From 2016 to 2022,a total of 1685 cases of mushroom poisoning have been reported,with a cumulative number of cases of 5464 people and 79 deaths.The period from May to October was not only the high incidence period of toxic mushroom poisoning incidents in Hunan Province,accounting for 92.23%of the number of toxic mushroom poisoning incidents,but also the peak of the number of cases,accounting for 91.23%of the number of toxic mushroom poisoning cases.Conclusion The poisonous mushroom poisoning incidents in Hunan Province from 2016 to 2022 have spatial clustering,and there are key occurrence areas.Temperature and precipitation affect the growth of poisonous mushrooms to a certain extent,and there is a positive correlation with poisonous mushroom poisoning.Meteorological early warning prevention and control should be carried out in specific regions during the high incidence of poisoning,and publicity and warning education should be strengthened to reduce the occurrence of poisoning incidents.