国家旅游网络地位对旅游服务贸易市场份额分散化的影响

Impact of Countries’Tourism Network Prominence on the Market Diversification of Tourism Service Trade

分散供应/需求风险是国际旅游和国民经济可持续发展的重要措施,有助于国家在复杂多变的国际环境中维持相对稳定的收益。文章基于社会网络理论,采用社会网络分析法和泊松伪最大似然估计,利用2005—2018年全球40个报告国和77个伙伴国的数据,分别从出境游和入境游两个方面检验国家在国际旅游流网络中的网络地位对旅游服务贸易市场份额分散化的影响,以及国家对现有国际旅游市场的依赖程度在其中的调节作用。研究发现:1)位于核心旅游网络地位的客源国更能利用网络优势分散其旅游服务贸易进口市场份额;2)位于核心旅游网络地位的目的地国更能基于网络优势分散其旅游服务贸易出口市场份额;3)客源国对现有出境游市场的依赖性会削弱其旅游网络地位对旅游服务贸易进口市场份额的分散作用,而目的地国对现有入境游市场的依赖性没有明显影响其旅游网络地位和旅游服务贸易出口市场份额之间的关系;4)根据异质性检验结果,发达国家旅游网络地位的提高有利于分散其对不同经济发展程度的目的地国或客源国的旅游服务贸易进口或出口市场份额,而发达国家对同为发达国家的目的地国的市场依赖性将对该过程形成阻碍。此外,客源国旅游网络地位的提高对位于不同大洲的目的地国的旅游服务贸易市场份额产生分散作用,而客源国对这部分目的地国的市场依赖性会对该过程产生阻碍。目的地国旅游网络地位的提高有助于调整对位于相同或不同大洲的客源国的旅游服务贸易市场份额。该研究为国家合理调整国际旅游关系结构和分散供需层面风险提供了理论和实证依据。

Diversifying supply and demand risks is an important measure for the sustainable development of international tourism and the national economy,which helps countries maintain relatively stable revenue in a complex and changing international environment.Based on social network theory,this study combines the social network analysis and the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation and uses the panel data of 40 reporting countries and 77 partner countries from 2005 to 2018 to investigate the impact of countries’network prominence in the international tourist flow network on the diversification of the market share of tourism services trade.It further examines the moderating role of a country’s dependence on the existing international tourism market in the relationship from both outbound and inbound tourism perspectives.The results are as follows:1)For outbound tourism,origin countries with a higher tourism network prominence are more likely to diversify their market share of imported tourism services trade through the network advantages.2)In terms of inbound tourism,destination countries with a higher tourism network prominence are better able to use network advantages to diversify their market share of the exported tourism service trade.3)Concerning the moderating role,origin countries with a higher level of dependence on the existing outbound tourism market weaken the diversification effect of the country’s tourism network prominence on the market share of imported tourism services trade,while the dependence of destination countries on the existing inbound tourism market has no significant impact on the relationship between tourism network prominence and the diversification of market share of exported tourism services trade.4)According to the heterogeneity test results,improvement in the tourism network prominence of developed countries is conducive to the diversification of their market share in the import or export of tourism service trade to either destination or origin countries with different levels of economic development.However,developed countries’market dependence on their destination countries,which also have developed economies,hinders this process.In addition,the improvement of the tourism network prominence of origin countries will lead to diversification of the tourism service trade market share in destination countries located on different continents,but these countries’market dependence on their destination countries located on different continents can hinder this process.The improvement of the tourism network prominence of destination countries contributes to the diversification of the tourism service trade market share in origin countries located on the same or different continents.This study provides theoretical and empirical evidence that countries can use to adjust the structure of international tourism relationships and diversify supply and demand risks.