适应性预期下大豆生产决策的影响研究——基于省级动态面板数据的实证检验

Study on the Influence of Soybean Production Decision under Adaptive Expectations——Empirical Testing Based on Provincial Dynamic Panel Data

大豆播种面积波动变化是制约我国大豆自给水平提升的重要原因之一。文章结合国内大豆供需新形势,依据适应性预期理论,选取2012—2022年黑龙江和河南等10个大豆主产省份的大豆种植数据,构建现实预期和比较预期动态面板数据模型,探究农户适应预期下的种植行为,并实证分析各预期因素对我国大豆生产决策的影响。实证结果表明:(1)农户在种植决策上的理性表现为种植行为和种植结构比例选择的惯性,且往期种植面积、预期价格和预期单产的种植“惯性”作用在大豆种植决策中更为明显。(2)国产大豆亩均收益“低”、成本“高”的绝对和相对劣势凸显,同时大豆收益和成本的变化对其种植户的种植决策更具有影响力度。基于此,文章认为提高大豆单产、稳定市场价格、优化成本结构和创新优势产区大豆种植生产激励政策均可有效地促进大豆扩种,稳定大豆播种面积。

The fluctuation of soybean planting area is one of the important reasons restricting the improvement of China’s soybean self-sufficiency level.The article combines the new situation of domestic soybean supply and demand,and based on the theory of adaptive expectations,selects soybean planting data from 10 major soybean producing provinces including Heilongjiang and Henan from 2012 to 2022,constructs a dynamic panel data model of realistic expectations and comparative expectations,explores farm⁃ers’planting behavior under adaptive expectations,and empirically analyzes the impact of various expected factors on soybean pro⁃duction decisions in China.The empirical results are as follows.(1)Farmers’rational performance in planting decisions is manifest⁃ed by the habits of planting behavior and planting structure ratio selection,and the planting habits,such as previous planting areas,expected prices,and expected yields play more obvious roles in soybean planting decisions.(2)The absolute and relative disadvan⁃tages in domestic soybean production,i.e.low income and high cost per mu(approximately equal to 667 square meters)are high⁃lighted;the changes in soybean income and cost have a greater impact on the planting decisions of its growers.Based on this,the ar⁃ticle believes that increasing soybean yield,stabilizing market prices,optimizing cost structure,and innovating incentive policies for soybean planting and production in advantageous production areas can effectively promote soybean expansion and stabilize soy⁃bean planting area.