双碳目标下中国农食系统温室气体排放结构、发展趋势及国际比较

Structural Characteristics,Development Trends,and International Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China’s Agri-Food System Under the Dual-Carbon Objectives

【目的】从全产业链的视角,开展农食系统温室气体排放特征、结构和趋势分析,助力我国低碳战略的有效推进。【方法】基于联合国粮农组织最新的统计数据,利用统计分析法、比较分析法以及情景分析法,分析1990—2020年中国与美国、西欧、印度、巴西等主要经济体以及全球水平的农食系统温室气体排放的趋势特征和结构特征,并分情景(基准情形,温控目标2℃情形,温控目标1.5℃情形)、分环节对中国2050年农食系统温室气体排放量做出预测,在此基础上提出减排的重点领域和实现路径。【结果】中国是上述主要经济体中人均农食系统温室气体排放唯一增长显著的经济体,但人均排放水平远低于发达经济体。预计未来随着工业化进程的完成、能源行业低碳化的推进以及农业生产环节减排难度的增加,中国农食系统温室气体排放在全社会总排放中的占比将呈先下降后上升的趋势。其中,食品消费环节是中国农食系统温室气体排放增长最快的环节,农业生产环节的排放比重虽然在下降,但仍然是农食系统温室气体排放占比最大的环节。不同于其他主要经济体肠道发酵排放占比明显偏高的特征,中国的农业生产温室气体排放呈现肠道发酵、水稻种植、化肥施用以及能源利用“四分天下”的局面。【结论】未来减排的着力点应放在制定综合性农食系统碳中和战略、能源结构的低碳化、促进食物消费结构转变以及推进市场化减排等方面。

【Objective】This study adopted a comprehensive industry chain perspective to analyze the characteristics,structure,and trends of greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural food system,contributing to the effective advancement of China’s low-carbon strategy.【Method】Based on the latest statistics from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization,the statistical analysis,comparative analysis,and scenario analysis methods were used to analyze the trend and structural characteristics of greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural food systems of China,the United States,Western Europe,India,Brazil,and globally from 1990 to 2020.Scenarios(baseline,2℃temperature control,and 1.5℃temperature control)and specific stages were employed to predict China’s agricultural food system greenhouse gas emissions in 2050.This analysis formed the basis for identifying key areas for emission reduction and outlining achievable pathways.【Result】Among the major economies mentioned,China was the only country with a significantly increasing per capita greenhouse gas emission in the agricultural food system,although it remained lower than that of developed economies.It was expected that,with the completion of industrialization,the advancement of low-carbonization in the energy industry,and increased difficulty in emission reduction in agricultural production,China’s share of greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural food system in the total societal emissions would initially decrease and then rise.In this context,the food consumption stage was the fastest-growing segment in China’s agricultural food system greenhouse gas emissions,while the emission proportion from agricultural production was decreasing but still represented the largest share in the system.Unlike other major economies where enteric fermentation emissions were significantly higher,China’s agricultural production greenhouse gas emissions showed a diverse pattern,including enteric fermentation,rice cultivation,fertilizer application,and energy utilization.【Conclusion】Future emission reduction efforts should focus on formulating comprehensive carbon-neutral strategies for the agricultural food system,low-carbonization of energy structures,promoting shifts in food consumption patterns,and advancing market-oriented emission reduction initiatives.