沿海地区海洋经济韧性的发展演化及驱动因素

The Evolution and Driving Factors of Marine Economic Resilience in Coastal Areas

打造有韧性的海洋经济是推进海洋强国战略的重要抓手,为沿海地区高质量发展注入强劲动能。以2010—2022年我国沿海地区11个省份为研究对象,从抵抗性、脆弱性、鲁棒性和恢复性4个维度构建指标体系,综合运用投影寻踪、耦合协调度以及随机森林等模型,测度海洋经济韧性的发展水平、结构演化及驱动因素。结果显示:我国海洋经济韧性呈现总体增长态势,三大海洋经济圈分别形成以山东、上海和广东为核心的高韧性区域;北部地区韧性水平偏低,鲁棒性不足,东部地区韧性水平良好、发展均衡,南部地区韧性增长快,脆弱性和恢复性较强;4个韧性维度发展演化的协同度较高,大部分地区从濒临失调状态上升到初级协调状态及以上;海洋经济韧性增长的主要驱动因素来自抵抗性维度下的产业结构和经济实力。

Building a resilient marine economy serves as a crucial lever in advancing the strategy of becoming a maritime power,while also injecting strong momentum into the high-quality development of coastal areas..This paper focuses on the 11 coastal areas of China from 2010 to 2022,and constructs an indicator system of marine economic resilience(MER)from dimensions of resistance,vulnera-bility,robustness and recoverability,then use projection pursuit method,coupling coordination degree and random forest model to measure the dynamics of MER.The results show that the MER is generally increasing,three marine economic zones have respectively formed high-resilience regions centered around Shandong,Shanghai,and Guangdong.The resilience in northern region shows low level because of insufficient robustness,while the eastern region has a good resilience with balanced development,the resilience in southern region shows fast growth due to high contribution of vulnerability and recovery.The synergy degree of each dimension changes highly across regions,and most of them rise from moderate incoordination to primary coordination state or above.The main driving factors for the growth of MER come from the industrial structure and economic strength in the dimension of resistance.