政府债券发行的货币政策支持——来自我国央行公开市场操作的实证证据

Monetary policy support for government bond issuance:Empirical evidence from China's open market operations

财政政策与货币政策的协同配合,有利于形成政策合力,防范化解重大风险.本文基于对央行公开市场业务交易公告的文本分析,以及对政府债发行数据的实证检验,从国债和地方政府债发行与“入库”的视角验证了货币政策对政府债发行的协同配合.研究发现:发行国债和地方政府债都会显著提高央行通过公开市场操作释放流动性的概率;更进一步,债务发行之前,在国务院的要求和财政部与央行的诸多协同机制下,央行“大概率”会提前释放流动性,为国债和地方政府债的发行创造宽松的流动性环境;债务发行之后,国库集中收付制度所具有的“集中”与“隔离”功能,导致债务在发行款缴库时,部分货币退出市场,央行的公开市场操作也会相应释放流动性,从而平滑发行缴款引起的短期流动性波动.

The synergy between fiscal policy and monetary policy is conducive to forming policy synergy and preventing and resolving major risks.Based on the text analysis of the Central Bank's open market business transaction announcement and the empirical test of the government bond issuance data,this paper verifies the coordination of monetary policy on government bond issuance from the perspective of treasury bond and local government bond issuance and“warehousing”.The research finds that issuing treasury bond and local government bonds will significantly increase the probability of the central bank releasing liquidity through open market operations.Further,before the issuance of debt,under the requirements of the State Council and many coordination mechanisms between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank,the Central Bank will release liquidity in advance,creating a loose liquidity environment for the issuance of treasury bond and local government bonds;after the issuance of debt,the centralized collection and payment system of the national treasury has the functions of concentration and isolation,which leads to the withdrawal of some currencies from the market when the issuance of debt is deposited into the treasury.The open market operation of the central bank will also release liquidity accordingly,thereby smoothing out the short-term liquidity fluctuations caused by the issuance of payments.