多层网络中的信息-行为-资源-疾病耦合传播模型研究

Research on coupled information-behavior-resource-epidemic model in multiplex network

在突发公共卫生事件的应急管理中,疾病传播与扩散伴随着信息的传播、行为的采纳以及资源的传递,其传播过程也受到这些伴随因素的直接和间接影响,研究信息传播、行为采纳、资源传递与疾病传播之间的共演化传播特性,对探究疾病传播的其内在传播规律具有重要意义.本文建立了四层信息-行为-资源-疾病耦合传播模型,探讨各层之间的演化关系,分析信息、行为与资源对疾病传播的影响.与以往研究不同的是,本文将资源分为信息资源与医疗资源两种,其中,信息资源影响信息传播与遗忘过程,医疗资源影响疾病传播与恢复过程.通过微观马尔可夫方法推导出疾病传播阈值,并通过进行蒙特卡罗模拟来探究不同影响因子发挥的作用.本文结果表明,医疗资源与信息资源均可以提高疾病暴发阈值,减少疾病传播规模,其中医疗资源控制疾病的作用效果比信息资源的作用效果更加明显.

In the emergency management of public health emergencies,epidemic transmission and spread are often accompanied by information dissemination,behavior adoption and resource transmission.It is important to study the co-evolutionary transmission characteristics between information dissemination,behavior adoption,resource transmission and epidemic transmission and to explore their intrinsic transmission dynamics.In this paper,a four-level coupled information-behavior-resource-disease transmission model is developed to explore the influence of information,behavior and resources on disease transmission.Unlike previous studies,this paper divides resources into information resources and medical resources,where information resources influence the information transmission process and medical resources influence the disease transmission process.Then,this paper derives epidemic transmission thresholds through a micro-Markov approach.Secondly,this paper explores the role played by different influencing factors by conducting a large number of Monte Carlo simulations.The results show that both medical and information resources are important in increasing the epidemic outbreak threshold and reducing the scale of epidemic transmission,with the effect of medical resources being more obvious than that of information resources.