城市不同教育层级女性生育意愿的内部差异及其变迁(2010—2021)

Internal Differences and Changing Trends in Fertility Intention among Urban Women at Different Education Levels(2010-2021)

近年来我国生育率持续走低,中国人口开始出现生育主导型总量负增长,引起社会各界广泛关注。剖析城市育龄女性群体生育意愿的总体特征、内部差异及其变迁趋势,对于把握未来中国的生育形势具有先导性作用。从已有研究来看,不同教育层级女性的生育意愿变迁趋势更加趋同,还是更为分化仍有待进一步探究。基于七期中国综合社会调查的汇总数据(CGSS 2010—2021),利用年龄—时期—队列分析方法,探讨了城市育龄女性的生育意愿随年龄增长、时期推移和队列更替的变迁趋势,并比较了教育层级间的变迁差异。研究发现,城市育龄女性生育意愿的变迁主要受时期、队列效应影响。随着时间的推移,女性的生育意愿整体呈现出下降趋势。队列效应的特点为“95后”女性的生育意愿有较大幅度下降。并且,不同教育人群在变迁模式上存在较大分化。从时期效应来看,大专及以上学历群体的生育意愿自2017年后下降较明显。高中及中专学历群体生育意愿的队列效应波动较大。未来的公共政策应更多关注受过高等教育的女性群体的生育意愿,警惕教育连续扩张可能引发的新队列高等教育群体生育意愿的进一步下滑。

In recent years,China’s fertility rate has continued to decline,and the population has begun to show negative growth dominated by fertility,which has attracted widespread attention.Analyzing the overall characteristics,internal differences and changing trends of the fertility intentions of urban women of childbearing age plays a leading role in understanding China’s future fertility situation.According to existing research,whether the changing trends in fertility intentions among women at different education levels are more converging or more diverging remains to be further explored.Based on pooled data of the 7th Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS 2010-2021),using the age-period-cohort model,this paper discusses the changing trend of fertility intention of urban women of childbearing age with the increase of age,the passage of time and the change of generations,and compares the changing difference among education levels.The results show that urban women’s fertility intention is mainly affected by period change and cohort replacement.Women’s overall fertility intention shows a downward trend over time.The fertility intention of women born after 1995 has dropped significantly.Moreover,different educational groups have great differences in the mode of change.From the perspective of period effect,the fertility intention of the group with college education or above has decreased significantly since 2017.The generation effect of fertility intention of high school and technical secondary education groups fluctuates greatly.Future public policies should pay more attention to the reproductive intention of women with higher education,noting that the continuous expansion of education may lead to a further decline in the reproductive intention of the new generation of higher education groups.