托幼一体化背景下普惠托育供需预测及保障路径探讨--基于北京的研究

The Supply and Demand Forecast of Inclusive Childcare and the Discussion on Guarantee Path under the Background of Integrating Childcare with Kindergarten:Based on the Study in Beijing

出生人口规模持续下滑导致全国大量幼儿园关停、幼师转行,与此同时,普惠性托位短缺使得婴幼儿家庭虽然入托意愿强烈但实际送托不多。理论上,通过幼儿园办托实现托幼一体化,不仅能将闲置的学前学位有效用于增加普惠托位供给,还能最大效率消化过剩学前产能。然而,实践中普惠幼儿园能释放多少闲置学位、能否填补普惠托育供需缺口尚需检验。基于“六普”和“七普”数据,采用队列要素法,以北京为例,预测2024—2050年学龄前人口规模,测算普惠托育供需缺口并探讨其保障路径。结果表明,未来普惠托育需求增长旺盛,供需缺口将持续扩大,而普惠幼儿园闲置学位逐年增多,鼓励幼儿园办托能有效弥补普惠托位短缺难题,普惠幼儿园只要将10%的闲置学前学位合理转化就可以满足普惠托育需求。为推进托幼一体化建设,建议明确市区两级教育和卫健部门的职责分工,适当放宽市场限价、给予普惠幼儿园定价自由权以确保机构财务可持续,注重顶层设计、强化师资培训、满足家庭多样化需求,加强定额成本核算和绩效管理、优化补贴方式和标准等。

The continuing decline in the size of the birth population has led to the closure of many kindergartens across the country,which results in kindergarten teachers switching careers.At the same time,the shortage of inclusive childcare places has contributed to a low level of childcare enrollment rate of families with infants and toddlers,although they have a strong desire to enroll in such childcare services.Theoretically,achieving the integration of childcare and kindergarten by implementing kindergarten-run-childcare can not only effectively use unused preschool education places to increase the supply of inclusive childcare places,but also digest excess preschool education capacity with maximum efficiency.However,in practice,how many unused preschool education places can be released by inclusive kindergartens and whether they can fill the gap between supply and demand of inclusive childcare still need to be tested.Based on the data from the Sixth and the Seventh Population Census,taking Beijing as an example,this paper uses the cohort component method to forecast the size of preschool population from 2024 to 2050,to estimate the supply-demand gap and to explore the guarantee path for inclusive childcare.The results show that the demand for inclusive childcare will grow strongly and the gap between the supply and demand will expand continually in the future,but unused preschool education places of inclusive kindergartens will increase year by year.It is found that encouraging the kindergarten-run-childcare can effectively make up for the shortage of inclusive childcare places,in which inclusive kindergartens can satisfy the demand for inclusive childcare as long as the former can reasonably convert 10%of the unused preschool education places.In order to promote the integration of childcare and kindergarten,this paper proposes to clarify the division of responsibilities between the education and health departments at the municipal and district levels,to relax the market price limit appropriately and give inclusive kindergartens the freedom to set prices to ensure the institutions’financial sustainability,to focus on the top-level design,strengthen the teachers’training and meet the families’diversified demands,and to enhance the fixed cost accounting and performance management and to optimize the ways and standards of subsidies.