养老金收入对老年人收入差距的影响--基于间接效应的估计

The Effect of Pension Income on Income Inequality of the Elderly:Estimation Based on Indirect Effects

随着人口老龄化加剧,老年人收入保障和收入分配问题备受关注。基于CHIP 2018年数据,从作用机制视角,分析养老金收入对老年人劳动收入和赡养收入的影响,进而利用反事实估计其对老年人收入差距的影响。研究结果表明:养老金收入对老年人的劳动收入和赡养收入存在显著负向效应,而且养老金待遇越高,替代性越强。若直接用家庭人均可支配收入减去养老金收入的差值作为所有老年人在无养老金状态下的收入水平,会导致老年人真实收入被低估。若直接用有无养老金两种状态下的收入基尼系数的差值来衡量养老金收入对老年人收入差距的影响,会发现养老金收入导致全国老年人收入差距扩大了1.2%。考虑养老金收入的替代性后,养老金收入其实缩小了全国老年人收入差距。这主要是因为养老金待遇越高的老年人,在无养老金状态下,也会获得更高的劳动收入和赡养收入,养老金收入反而能有效降低收入差距。不同类型的养老金在老年人收入差距中发挥着不同的作用,职工养老金会扩大农村内部不平等,居民养老金对缩小全国老年人收入差距的作用更大。上述结论为深化养老保险制度改革,缩小全国老年人收入差距,最终实现共同富裕提供了方向。

With the intensification of population aging,the issue of income security and distribution for the elderly has attracted much attention.This article is based on CHIP 2018 data and analyzes the impact of pension income on the labor income and support income of the elderly from the perspective of the mechanism of action,furthermore,utilizing counterfactual estimation to assess the impact on income inequality among the elderly.The research results indicate that:1)Pension income has a significant negative effect on the labor income and support income of the elderly,and the higher the pension benefits,the stronger the substitutability.Directly using the difference between the per capita disposable income of the household and the pension income as the income level of all elderly people without pension will lead to underestimation of their real income.2)Directly measuring the impact of pension income on the income gap among the elderly using the difference in income Gini coefficient between the two states of having and not having pension,it was found that pension income led to a 1.2%increase in the national income gap of the elderly.3)Considering the total substitution of pension for labor income and support income,pension income actually narrowed the national income gap of the elderly.Because the elderly with higher pension benefits will get higher income from work and support under the condition of no pension.The collection of pension income will effectively reduce the inequality of labor income and support income.4)Different types of pensions play different roles in the income gap of the elderly.The employee pension will expand the inequality in rural areas,and the resident pension will play a greater role in narrowing the national income gap of the elderly.The above conclusions provide a direction for deepening the reform of the endowment insurance system,narrowing the national income gap of the elderly,and ultimately achieving common prosperity.