人口老龄化、数字化水平与制造业结构升级

Population Aging,Digitalization and Upgrading of Manufacturing Structure

人口老龄化趋势的加速为我国新时代经济高质量发展带来了挑战和机遇。立足于我国人口老龄化基本国情,使用2013—2021年全国省级面板数据,在考察人口老龄化对制造业结构升级的传统影响路径基础上,重点研究数字化水平在其中的作用机制。人口老龄化通过劳动供给、消费需求以及技术创新三大传统路径对我国制造业结构升级既有抑制作用也有促进作用。通过实证发现人口老龄化对制造业结构升级综合表现为促进作用。进一步研究发现,一方面人口老龄化能够刺激数字化水平提升以推动制造业结构升级,另一方面数字化能够显著缓解人口老龄化负面作用从而推动制造业结构升级。异质性分析证实了东北、东、中、西部地区人口老龄化与数字化水平作用的异质性并以“宽带中国”战略深化前后为时间节点检验了时间异质性。研究发现,缩小数字鸿沟、提高数字技术使用和收益水平是中国经济进入新常态背景下,更好发挥人口老龄化对制造业结构升级促进作用的关键。研究为探索数实融合、积极应对人口老龄化、实现经济高质量发展的中国经验提供了证据支撑。

The acceleration trend of population aging has brought challenges and opportunities to the high-quality development of China’s economy in the new era.Based on the basic national conditions of population aging,this paper uses provincial panel data from 2013 to 2021 to examine the direct impact of population aging on the upgrading of manufacturing structure and focus on studying the mechanism of digital level in it.The population aging has both inhibitory and promoting effects on the upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry structure through three traditional paths:labor supply,consumer demand,and technological innovation.Through empirical study,this paper found that the aging of population has a comprehensive promoting effect on the upgrading of manufacturing structure.This study further reveals that,on the one hand,population aging can spur the enhancement of digital proficiency,thereby fostering the advancement of the manufacturing structure.On the other hand,digitalization can notably mitigate the adverse impacts of population aging,further propelling the manufacturing structure’s upgrade.The heterogeneity of population aging and digital level in Northeast,East,Central,and West regions is demonstrated in the heterogeneity analysis;Meanwhile,the time heterogeneity is tested before and after the deepening of the“Broadband China”strategy.With China’s economy entering the new normal,narrowing the digital divide and improving the use and profitability of digital technology are the key to better leverage the role of population aging in promoting the upgrading of manufacturing structure.This study provides evidence support for exploring the Chinese experience of integration of number and reality,actively responding to population aging,and achieving high-quality economic development.