碳达峰碳中和目标下中国经济产业发展研究

Research on the Development of China’s Economic Industry under the Goal of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality

实现碳达峰碳中和涉及广泛而深刻的经济和社会系统性变革。基于构建的经济-能源-环境可计算一般均衡(computable general equilibrium,CGE)模型,在碳达峰后设置“凹型”、“凸型”和“直线型”3种实现碳中和的减排路径,分析了“双碳”目标下中国经济社会和产业发展的变化趋势。研究表明:第一,采用先慢后快的“凸型”碳减排方案时,2020年到2060年的累计GDP损失(相较基准情景而言)最小,约为2.5%,2060年中国碳价水平(边际减排成本)将超过2800元/t;第二,在碳中和目标约束下,2060年非化石能源消费在一次能源消费中的占比将达到80%以上,非化石能源发电占比将达到90%以上;第三,钢铁、有色金属、建材、化工等高耗能行业的减排对落实“双碳”目标具有重要作用,加快化石能源退出并提升清洁电力在能源消费中的占比是高耗能行业减排的重要方式。根据研究结论,建议设定全社会和各行业明确的减排目标,制定合理的碳中和减排路径时间表,明确逐步实现碳中和的阶段性目标;加快构建新型能源体系和新型电力系统,促进可再生能源大规模发展,实现清洁能源对化石能源的全面深度替代;制定重点行业实现碳中和的具体方案,推动能源与产业协同转型,加快提升电气化水平。

Realizing carbon peak and carbon neutrality involves extensive and profound economic and social systemic changes.This study constructs an economy,energy and environment computable general equilibrium(3E-CGE)model and sets up three policy simulation schemes after carbon peak,including“concave”emission reduction path,“convex”emission reduction path,and“linear”emission reduction path,to reveal the changing trends of China’s economic,social,and industrial development under the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Research shows that,firstly,when the“convex”carbon reduction path of slow first and fast later is adopted,the cumulative GDP loss from 2020 to 2060(compared to the business as usual scenario)is the smallest,about 2.5%.The carbon price(marginal emission reduction cost)in 2060 will exceed 2,800 yuan/ton.Secondly,under the constraint of the carbon neutrality goal,by 2060,the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach more than 80%,and the proportion of non-fossil energy in power generation will reach more than 90%.Thirdly,emission reduction in energy intensive industries such as chemical,building materials,steel,and non-ferrous metals plays an important role in achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Accelerating the withdrawal of fossil energy and increasing the proportion of clean electricity in energy consumption are important ways to reduce emissions in these industries.According to research findings,it is recommended to set clear emission reduction targets for the whole society and various industries,formulate a reasonable timetable for emission reductions,and clarify the phased goals of gradually achieving carbon neutrality;accelerate the construction of a new type of energy system and power system,promote the large-scale development of renewable energy,and realize the deep substitution of clean energy for fossil energy;formulate specific plans for achieving carbon neutrality in key industries,promote the coordinated transformation of energy and industry,and accelerate the improvement of electrification levels.