“双碳”目标下中国建筑部门能源转型模拟

Modelling Energy Transition of China’s Building Sector under the Dual-carbon Goal

随着中国建筑部门能源服务需求持续增长,“双碳”目标下的建筑部门能源低碳转型面临挑战。在全球变化分析模型(GCAM)框架中对中国建筑部门进行本土化改进刻画,模拟其在“双碳”目标下的能源转型及碳排放路径。结果表明:①近期内,中国建筑部门能源消费继续增长,2030年后增速逐步放缓至趋于饱和;②煤炭于2050年基本完全退出中国建筑用能,天然气是过渡能源,而电力和可再生能源将持续发展,两者2060年分别提供中国建筑部门用能23%和64%;③快速推进电气化和可再生能源应用是中国建筑部门实现近零碳排放的保障,而发电等能源转换部门的负碳排放则是中国建筑部门最终实现净零碳排放的关键。

As the energy demand of China’s building sector continues to grow,the low-carbon energy transition of the building sector faces challenges under the dual-carbon goal.This study implements a localized representation and refinement of China’s building sector within the Global Change Analysis Model(GCAM)to simulate its energy transition and carbon emissions pathways under the dual-carbon goal.The results show that:(1)energy consumption in China’s building sector continues to grow in the near term,with the growth rate gradually slowing down to saturation after 2030;(2)coal is almost completely phased out from China’s building energy use in 2050,and natural gas is a transitional energy source,while electricity and renewable energy continue to grow,with the two supplying 23%and 64%of the energy consumption in China’s building sector in 2060,respectively;and(3)the rapid promotion of electrification and renewable energy applications is the guarantee for China’s building sector to achieve near-zero carbon emissions,while negative carbon emissions from energy conversion sectors such as power generation are the key for China’s building sector to ultimately achieve net-zero carbon emissions.