基于毕达哥拉斯模糊—累积前景理论的抽水蓄能容量规划综合决策

Decision-Making of Pumped Storage Capacity Planning Based on Pythagorean Fuzzy Theory and Cumulative Prospect Theory

针对含新能源接入的电网中抽蓄电站容量规划问题,提出一种综合考虑定量、定性指标及决策者主观偏好的综合决策方法,旨在达到经济、技术性最优,生态影响最小的目的。首先构造了抽蓄容量规划评价指标体系,建立了火—风—抽蓄联合出力模型,优化抽蓄电站出力;然后采用毕达哥拉斯模糊数描述专家主观判断的模糊性;最后利用累积前景理论处理模糊数矩阵,考虑决策者的风险偏好类型。针对改进的IEEE30节点联合出力系统中不同的规划方案进行决策。结果表明,所提方法可体现决策者主观偏好对方案支持度的影响,为抽蓄容量规划的综合决策问题提供了参考。

A comprehensive decision-making method that takes into account quantitative and qualitative indicators and subjective preferences of decision makers was proposed for capacity planning of pumped storage,aiming to achieve eco-nomic and technical optimization with minimal ecological impact.Firstly,a comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed to establish a hybrid thermal-wind-pumped storage model.Secondly,Pythagorean fuzzy numbers were used to describe the vagueness of subjective judgment.Finally,the cumulative prospect theory was used to process fuzzy num-bers matrix for considering the types of risk preferences.Computational analysis was performed for different schemes in the IEEE 30-bus hybrid system.The results show that the proposed method could reflect the influence of the subjective opinion from the decision makers on the schems,which provided a reference for the capacity planning of pumped storage.