企业债券违约风险的研究——基于ZETA模型及Fisher判别分析

Research on Default Risks of Corporate Bonds:Based on ZETA Model and Fisher Discriminant Analysis

文章采用理论分析与实证检验结合的方法,以76家公司的综合财务数据为研究基础,对债券违约企业与非违约企业的财务特征进行研究,以ZETA模型参数变量和Fisher判别分析方法,搭建违约风险评估模型,对企业的违约风险实施分析评价,并进行检验,以期为国家金融监管机构、金融机构和投资者等利益相关方提供科学的评价方法和决策依据。

This article adopts a combination method of theoretical analysis and empirical test,based on the comprehensive financial data of 76 companies,and researches the financial characteristics of bond default enterprises and non default enterprises.By using the parameter variables of the ZETA model and the Fisher discriminant analysis,a default risk assessment model is constructed to analyze and evaluate the default risk of enterprises,and then conduct tests,thus providing a scientific evaluation method and decision-making basis for national financial regulatory agencies,financial institutions,investors and other stakeholders.