基于熵权-模糊层次分析法的煤层底板突水危险性评价

Risk assessment of floor water inrush into coal seam based on entropy weight-fuzzy analytical hierarchy process method

以薛虎沟煤矿10号煤层为研究对象,在分析煤矿地质及水文地质条件基础上,确定了影响10号煤层底板突水的主控因素,运用熵权(EW)与模糊层次分析(FAHP)相结合的研究方法,计算了各主控因素的权重,建立了10号煤层底板突水的脆弱性指数模型,并对10号煤层底板突水危险性进行综合评价。研究表明,影响10号煤层底板突水的主控因素为奥灰水压、奥灰富水性、隔水层厚度、脆性岩厚度及煤层底板破坏深度;10号煤底板突水的脆弱性指数模型为VI=0.2112 f_(1)(x,y)+0.3086 f_(2)(x,y)+0.1494 f_(3)(x,y)+0.1909 f_(4)(x,y)+0.1399 f_(5)(x,y);10号煤层突水危险区和较危险区主要呈带状分布于煤矿西北部局部地区。

The No.10 coal seam of Xuehugou coal mine is taken as the research object.Based on the analysis of the geological and hydro-geological conditions of the coal mine,the main control factors affecting the coal floor water inrush the No.10 coal seam are determined.Subsequently,the methods such as entropy weight(EW)and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP)are combined to calculate the weight of each main control factor.Finally,the vulnerability index model of the floor water inrush of No.10 coal seam is established to assess the risk of floor water inrush of the coal seam comprehensively.The studies show that the main controlling factors affecting the floor water inrush No.10 coal seam are the water pressure of Ordovician limestone aquifer,the water richness of Ordovician limestone aquifer,the thickness of aquifuge,the thickness of brittle rock as well as the floor failure depth;Vulnerability index model for No.10 coal floor inrush is shown as:VI=0.2112 f_(1)(x,y)+0.3086 f_(2)(x,y)+0.1494 f_(3)(x,y)+0.1909 f_(4)(x,y)+0.1399 f_(5)(x,y);The floor water inrush danger zone and secondary danger zone of No.10 coal seam are mainly distributed as a belt shape in the northwest part of the coal mine.