山西产业用水和产业发展布局协调关系研究

Research on the Coordination Relationship between Industrial Water Use and Industrial Development layout in Shanxi Province

有限的水资源是产业结构优化重要的约束条件,把握产业用水和产业发展布局协调关系有助于提高山西省水资源利用效率,优化我省产业结构转型升级。采用相关分析理论和情景分析,通过相关系数的测定,得到第二、第三产业与取水显著正相关,分析在水资源约束条件下的用水效率和工业增加值、服务业增加值以及地区生产总值之间的关系,预测各产业用水效率提升幅度,给出产业结构和用水结构优化方向。结果表明,各产业用水效率应提高5%~20%不等,以满足产业用水需求和经济发展需求;在取水总量约束下,地区生产总值若保持近年平均增速(5.8%),到2030年,用水效率需比现状提高约30%~50%;地区生产总值若取近年平均增速的50%左右,用水效率则需提高20%~30%左右;如地区生产总值在现状基础上继续增加3%,则用水效率需提高约50%~60%。

ion constraint,if GDP increases by the average rate of recent years,water use efficiency should improve 30%to 50%by 2030.If the increase rate is cut by half of the average rate of recent years,water use efficiency should grow by 20%to 30%in 2030.If the growth rate of GDP rises by 3%,water use efficiency should probably grow up by 50%to 60%.