世界地缘格局重塑与世界经济发展的趋势性特征

The Reshaping of the World Geopolitical Pattern and the Characteristics of World Economic Development Trend

当前世界格局急剧演化与重塑,今后一个较短时期将决定世界和人类社会发展的趋势,甚至奠定未来长周期发展的基础。大国关系纵横捭阖,南方国家整体加快发展,并将强势崛起,中国或是世界格局变化中的最大变量。新一轮科技革命和产业变革极大提高社会生产力水平的同时也给世界带来了新的挑战。美国或将由于国家信用崩溃而处于由盛转衰的重要历史拐点,国际货币体系和结算体系在未来一个时期将发生基础性、根本性、颠覆性变革。全球贸易体系和贸易规则受到严重挑战,扭转全球贸易体系紊乱局面的斗争将长期化。全球能源贸易版图正在重建,能源供给结构与贸易结构正在发生深刻调整。全球产业转移要素重组加速,除产业转移内在规律及科技革命推动世界产业格局重大变化外,本轮产业链供应链转移和重构更多由于非经济因素。全球治理面临新的时代背景,如何延续并完善全球治理是对人类智慧的最大挑战。

The current world pattern is rapidly evolving and reshaping,and a relatively short period of time in the future will determine the development trend of the world and human society,and even lay the foundation for long-term development in the future.The relations between major countries are both vertical and horizontal,and the Global South countries as a whole have accelerated their development and will rise strongly.China may be the biggest variable in the changing world pattern.The new round of sci-tech revolution and industrial transformation has not only greatly raised the level of social productivity,but also brought new challenges to the world.The United States may be at an important historical turning point from prosperity to decline due to the collapse of its national credit,the international monetary system and settlement system will undergo basic,fundamental and subversive changes in the coming period.The global trading system and trade rules have been seriously challenged,and the struggle to reverse the disorder of the global trading system will be protracted.The global energy trade landscape is being rebuilt,and the energy supply structure and trade structure are undergoing profound adjustments.The restructuring of global industrial transfer factors is accelerating.In addition to the inherent law of industrial transfer and the major changes in the world industrial pattern promoted by the sci-tech revolution,the transfer and reconstruction of the industrial chain and supply chain are more affected by noneconomic factors.Global governance is facing a new era.How to continue and improve global governance is the greatest challenge to human wisdom.