长江经济带发展战略对沿江地区农业碳排放的影响研究

Impact of Development Strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt on Agricultural Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River Region

促进农业碳减排是全面推进长江经济带沿江地区生态优先、绿色发展的关键战略任务,也是长江经济带发展战略的重要内容。本文以沿江地区为研究样本,运用PSM-DID计量方法,评估长江经济带发展战略对沿江地区农业碳排放的政策效果。研究发现,长江经济带发展战略促进了沿江地区农业碳减排,且经过一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立;农业规模化经营和技术进步是长江经济带发展战略促进沿江地区农业碳减排的两条影响机制;长江经济带发展战略对于沿江不同区域和不同碳源的农业碳排放的政策效果存在异质性。为了进一步优化政策效果,要加快培育长江经济带农业新质生产力、推进长江经济带沿江地区农业适度规模经营、因地制宜推进长江经济带各区域农业碳减排。

Reducing agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River region is a key strategic task for comprehensively promoting ecological priority and green development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.It is also an important part of the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.This study uses the propensity score matching-difference in difference(PSM-DID)method to explore the policy effects and impact mechanisms of the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt on agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River region.The results show that the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt promotes the agricultural carbon reduction in the Yangtze River region,which still holds true after robustness tests.Agricultural scale operation and technological progress are two factors influencing the agricultural carbon reduction by the development strategy.In addition,the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt demonstrates heterogeneous policy effects on agricultural carbon emissions in dfferent areas and of different carbon sources along the Yangtze River.To improve the policy effects,measures should be taken to promote the development of new quality productive forces in agriculture,moderate scale operation of agriculture,and agricultural carbon reduction in various regions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt according to local conditions.