突发公共事件下企业现金股利政策的偏好--基于中国A股上市公司的实证研究

The Preference of Corporate Cash Dividend Policy Under Public Emergencies: Based on an Empirical Study of China's A-Share Listed Companies

突发公共事件下管理者如何制定现金股利方案?公共卫生事件对企业现金股利政策有着怎样的影响?为探究以上问题,文章以2015—2023年非金融行业沪、深两市A股上市公司为样本,运用logit回归方法进行分析。研究结果表明,危机时刻企业偏好采取积极的现金股利政策向市场发出正面乐观的信号。企业规模、盈利能力、经营收现能力、成长性、营运能力、资本结构、偿债能力均是影响企业现金股利政策的重要因素,且处于成熟期的企业比处于初创期的企业更愿意支付现金股利。在公共卫生事件发生的第一年,相比于减少或维持稳定的现金股利政策,企业更偏好增加现金股利来传递积极信号。在公共卫生事件后的第一年,相比于不发放现金股利、减少或维持稳定的现金股利,具备优势的企业仍倾向于增加现金股利。但无论是公共卫生事件初始和之后,财务杠杆都是制约企业发放现金股利的重要因素。

How do managers formulate cash dividend plans in the event of a public emergency?What is the impact of the public health incident on the cash dividend policy of enterprises?In order to explore the above questions,this paper takes the A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen in the non-financial industry from 2015 to 2023 as samples,and uses the logit regression method to analyze.The results show that companies prefer to adopt a positive cash dividend policy in times of crisis,which sends a positive and optimistic signal to the market.Enterprise size,profitability,operating cash capacity,growth,operating capacity,capital structure,and debt repayment ability are all important factors affecting the cash dividend policy of enterprises,and enterprises in the mature stage are more willing to pay cash dividends than enterprises in the start-up stage.In the first year of the public health event,companies prefer to increase cash dividends to send a positive signal rather than reducing or maintaining a stable cash dividend policy.In the first year after the public health incident,companies with an advantage still tend to increase cash dividends compared to not paying cash dividends,reducing or maintaining stable cash dividends.However,whether it is at the beginning of the public health incident or after the public health incident,financial leverage is an important factor restricting the distribution of cash dividends by enterprises.