新《预算法》实施对地方政府债务治理的影响

The Impact of the Implementation of the New Budget Law on Local Government Debt Governance

预算管理法治化是政府治理现代化的应有之义,是约束地方政府融资平台举债融资的基本制度规范,无疑对地方政府债务治理和风险防范发挥重要作用。本文借助强度双重差分模型,系统考察新《预算法》实施对地方政府债务的治理效应。研究发现:新《预算法》实施明显降低了地级市城投债发行规模。政府债务治理法治化之所以能抑制地方政府融资平台发行城投债,主要源于硬化预算约束、强化财政审计监管和提升财政支出效率的实现机制。经济增长目标过高会削弱新《预算法》实施对地方政府债务规模的抑制作用,而财政支出分权强化了新《预算法》实施的地方政府债务治理效应。未来要加强地方政府融资平台债务的法治化管理,同时促进政府间财政关系和经济增长目标管理的协同改革,共同助力防范化解政府债务风险。

The rule of law in budget management is the proper meaning of the modernization of government gover-nance,and it is the basic institutional norms for restraining the debt financing of local government financing platforms,which undoubtedly plays an important role in the governance of local government debt and risk prevention.This paper systematically examines the governance effects of the implementation of the New Budget Law on local government debt with the help of an intensity Double Difference Model.The study found that the implementation of the New Budget Law significantly reduced the scale of municipal investment bond issuance by prefecture-level cities.The reason why the rule of law in government debt governance can inhibit the issuance of municipal bonds by local government financing plat-forms stems mainly from the realization mechanism of hardening budget constraints,strengthening financial audit su-pervision and enhancing the efficiency of financial expenditures.Excessive economic growth targets will weaken the dampening effect of the implementation of the new Budget Law on the size of local government debt,while the decen-tralization of fiscal expenditures strengthens the local government debt governance effect of the implementation of the New Budget Law.In the future,it will be necessary to strengthen the rule of law management of the debt of local gov-ernment financing platforms,as well as to promote synergistic reforms of intergovernmental fiscal relations and the management of economic growth targets,so as to jointly assist in preventing and resolving government debt risks.