农业社会化服务与农业现代化耦合协调性研究

Study on the Coordination of Coupling Agricultural Social Services and Agricultural Modernization

为促进黑龙江省农业社会化服务与农业现代化协调发展,构建二者指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型和Tobit回归模型,分析二者的耦合协调关系及协调发展的影响因素。结果表明:二者协调发展水平总体呈上升趋势,2017年发展水平持平,2018年以后农业现代化水平逐渐超过农业社会化服务水平;耦合协调度呈稳定增长趋势,2021年进入优质协调阶段;经济发展水平、农业支出、基础设施水平和人才储备与二者的耦合协调度在1%水平显著正相关,产业结构在1%水平显著负相关。基于以上研究结论,提出政策建议。

In order to promote the coordinated development of agricultural socialization service and agricultural modernization in Heilongjiang Province,this paper constructs an index system of the two,uses the coupling coordination degree model and Tobit regression model to analyze the coupling coordination relationship and the influencing factors of the coordinated development of the two.The results showed that the coordinated development level of the two was on the rise,the development level was flat in 2017,and the agricultural modernization level gradually exceeded the agricultural socialization service level after 2018.The coupling coordination degree showed a steady growth trend and entered the high-quality coordination stage in 2021.Economic development level,agricultural expenditure,infrastructure level and talent reserve had significant positive correlation with their coupling coordination degree at 1%level,and industrial structure had significant negative correlation at 1%level.Finally,based on the above research conclusions,policy recommendations were put forward.