基于主题模型和云模型的水利工程EPC项目造价风险评价研究

Research on Cost Risk Assessment of Hydroelectric Engineering EPC Projects Based on LDA Topic Model and Cloud Model

随着水利工程EPC项目的逐渐普及,项目造价风险管理成为确保工程质量和控制成本的关键。然而,EPC项目中的造价风险复杂多变,常常导致预算超支和经济损失。针对这一问题,本文研究了基于云模型的水利工程EPC项目造价风险评价方法。首先,基于LDA主题模型识别并构建了全面的风险指标体系,以覆盖各种可能影响项目造价的因素。然后,采用云模型实现了对风险的定性评价和定量分析,充分考虑了风险的多种因素以及模糊性。本文方法能够更准确地评估和管理水利工程EPC项目中的造价风险,从而为工程决策提供有效支持。

With the increasing prevalence of hydroelectric engineering EPC(Engineering,Procurement,and Construction)projects,managing project cost risks has become crucial for ensuring engineering quality and controlling costs.However,the cost risks in EPC projects are complex and variable,often leading to budget overruns and economic losses.To address this issue,this paper investigates a cost risk assessment method for hydroelectric engineering EPC projects based on the cloud model.Firstly,a comprehensive risk indicator system was identified based on LDA topic model and constructed to cover various factors that could impact project costs.Then,the cloud model was employed for both qualitative evaluation and quantitative analysis of risks,fully considering the fuzziness and uncertainty of risks.The proposed method can more accurately assess and manage cost risks in hydroelectric engineering EPC projects,thus providing effective support for engineering decision-making.