可重复使用运载火箭可靠性经济性分析研究初探

Preliminary Study on Reliability and Economic Analysis of Reusable Launch Vehicle

可重复使用、成本和可靠性是可重复使用运载火箭最具代表性的3个特点,分析了三者之间存在的联系及研究现状,对可重复使用运载火箭可靠性经济性分析未来的研究方向进行了归纳和总结,包括可重复使用运载火箭的硬件成本的估算,使用与保障成本的估算,可靠性模型的构建,可靠性与寿命周期成本之间的关系等。此外,对市面上现有的成本估算工具和模型的优缺点进行了分析,给出了推荐使用的意见和建议。

Three key words can be used together for the characterizes of a Reusable Launch Vehicle:reusability,cost,and reliability.Through the investigation of the research status and the organic relationship among the three issues,the future research direction of reliability and economic analysis of reusable launch vehicles is summarized,including how to estimate the cost of hardware and operations of reusable launch vehicles,how to construct reliability models,how to establish the relationship between reliability and life cycle costs,and so on.Besides,the advantages and disadvantages of the existing cost estimation tools and models in the market are analyzed,and suggestions for recommended use are given.