中日半导体产业合作潜力、博弈及应对策略

Sino-Japanese Semiconductor Industry Cooperation Potential,Game and Countermeasures

20世纪80年代日本半导体产业全球领先,但受美国打压由盛而衰,目前仅在半导体上游保持优势。中国半导体产业虽然起步晚,但发展迅速,在产能和终端市场占绝对优势。中日通过半导体产业内贸易和日本半导体企业对华投资构成了优势互补的产业链。从中日半导体贸易竞争力及产业互补性来看,产业合作基础夯实、潜力较强。尤其是中国超大规模市场为中日半导体产业合作提供了广阔的空间和机遇。然而,随着美国拉拢日本等国加紧对华半导体出口管制和技术封锁,中日半导体产业陷入脱钩、断链的风险,呈现出竞争和博弈的新格局。未来中日要加强政府之间合作机制,创新多层次合作模式,充分发挥RCEP合作平台,化解西方技术封锁和地缘政治风险等外部挑战,实现半导体产业高质量发展。

In the 1980s,Japan's semiconductor industry led the world,but it was suppressed by the United States from prosperity to decline,and now only in the semiconductor upstream to maintain an advantage.Although China's semiconductor industry started late,it is developing rapidly and has an absolute advantage in capacity and terminal markets.China and Japan have formed an industrial chain with complementary advantages through intra-semiconductor trade and Japanese semiconductor enterprises'investment in China.From the perspective of Sino-Japanese semiconductor trade competitiveness and industrial complementarity,the industrial cooperation foundation is solid and the potential is strong.In particular,China's ultra-large market provides broad space and opportunities for Sino-Japanese semiconductor industry cooperation.However,with the United States co-opting Japan and other countries to tighten semiconductor export control and technology blockade on China,the Sino-Japanese semiconductor industry is at risk of decoupling and breaking the chain,showing a new pattern of competition and game.In the future,China and Japan should strengthen the cooperation mechanism between governments,innovate multi-level cooperation models,make full use of the RCEP cooperation platform,resolve external challenges such as Western technology blockade and geopolitics,and achieve high-quality development of the semiconductor industry.