民族人口空间嵌入的时空演化特征及驱动因素

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics and Determinants of Ethnic Minority Population Spatial Embedding in China

基于2000-2020年第五、六、七次全国人口普查数据,分析民族人口空间嵌入时空演化特征并实证研究驱动因素。研究发现:从空间嵌入均衡性角度来看,全国范围的民族人口空间嵌入变得更加均衡,其中人口数量较少民族的空间嵌入均衡性往往低于其他民族;从空间嵌入多样性角度来看,西部>东北>东部>中部;云南、贵州、青海、新疆等地区始终是民族人口空间嵌入多样性的代表性地区。民族人口空间嵌入主要以“胡焕庸线”为临界,以西地区的民族人口空间嵌入多样性水平要明显高于以东地区;在此基础之上,从发展的角度来看,民族人口空间嵌入呈现较为明显的“经济导向”和“区位比邻”特征。“经济发展机会”和“地区可达性”是驱动民族人口空间嵌入的两类主要因素,其中“地区可达性”因素的影响更为稳定,并在熟人关系网络的作用下产生较为明显的“空间嵌入马太效应”;相较之下,“经济发展机会”因素同样能够提升民族人口空间嵌入水平,但效果并不稳定。

This article investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics and determinants of ethnic minority population spatial embedding in China from 2000 to 2020.By synthesizing existing literature related to the spatial embedding of the population at home and abroad and constructing a spatial embeddedness coefficient,we utilized data from the 5th,6th,and 7th national censuses and the 2015 national 1%population sampling survey.Employing analytical methods such as the Moran Index,the study reveals the following findings:1)The spatial embeddedness of ethnic minority populations in China evidently is relatively stable:At the quantitative level,according to the seventh population census data from 2020,there have been only slight changes in the densely populated areas,moderately embedded regions,and sparsely embedded areas of ethnic minorities compared to the fifth population census in 2000,the sixth population census in 2010,and the national 1%population sampling survey in 2015.At the regional level,the spatial distribution of the ethnic minority population shows higher embedding west of the“Hu Huanyong Line”(a geographical population boundary)than that of its east.At the provincial level,the spatial embeddedness of ethnic peoples shows more intensive concentrations in Xizang,Xinjiang,and Qinghai,while regions like Shanxi,Jiangxi,and Jiangsu exhibit lower levels of embedding.2)The phenomenon of ethnic spatial embedding in China exhibits distinct patterns of“economic orientation”and“locational adjacency”.“Economic orientation”is noticeable in the increasing spatial embedding coefficients in relatively economically developed provinces such as Zhejiang,Shanghai,Guangdong,and Jiangsu,contrasting with declining coefficients in the northeastern and western less developed regions of Heilongjiang,Xizang,and Guizhou.“Locational adjacency”seems to reflect greater ethnic spatial embedding in areas neighboring existing ethnic minority settlements.3)Apparently economic development opportunities significantly influence spatial embedding,though the effect has been inconsistent.Growing regional GDP has demonstrated to correlate with deeper ethnic minority spatial embedding in both scattered and mixed areas as well as a more profound Han spatial embeddedness in ethnic minority concentrated areas.This is consistent with the“economic orientation”feature of spatial embeddedness.However,due to the limitations of a single employment structure,rising average wages may counteract this trend.4)Finally,regional accessibility has emerged as a stable driving force for spatial embedding,exhibiting a“spatial embedding Matthew effect”where improved transportation conditions lead to increased mobility of ethnic people groups but also reduced residential stability.When ethnic minority populations settle in embedded places,they are often limited to social connections within their own“acquaintance network”.As a result,in areas with more densely populated ethnic minority populations,more ethnic minority populations continue to embed.This is known as the“spatial embedding Matthew effect,”which also impacts the spatial settlement patterns of the Han population in ethnic minority area.On the basis of above analysis,it can be concluded that improvement of the economic development level of densely populated areas of ethnic minorities such as Inner Mongolia,Gansu,and Hunan,etc.,the spatial embeddedness of various ethnic groups will be effectively deepened,inter-ethnic communication,interaction,and integration be promoted,contributing to achievement of the goal of comprehensive embeddedness of various ethnic groups in space,culture,economy,society,psychology,and other aspects.