银行业对外开放与内资银行竞争和发展——兼论统筹银行业开放与安全

Opening-up of China’s Banking Industry and Domestic Banks’Competition and Development:Discussion on Coordination of Opening-up and Safety

加快金融业的高水平开放、提高参与国际金融治理能力是我国构建制度型开放新体制的重要组成部分。然而经过40多年的银行业开放,我国外资银行无论是数量还是资产规模与内资银行相比仍然相差悬殊。新一轮的银行业开放究竟能否促进银行业竞争、推动内资银行业发展,存有疑问。本文梳理了中国银行业开放的历程,论证了中国银行业新一轮开放对金融强国建设的必要性,并利用银行分支机构数量作为银行业发展的代理变量,从微观层面考察开放对我国银行业发展的影响。研究结果显示:(1)能够从事人民币业务的外资银行数量增加(集约边际)可以显著提高内资银行分支机构的数量。(2)首次引入能够从事人民币业务的外资银行(扩展边际)也会使得内资银行分支机构显著增加。这说明银行业市场开放本身就具有相当重要的意义。(3)由于竞争实力的不同,内资银行受到的影响存在异质性,五大国有银行、股份制银行和异地城市商业银行的分支机构数量增加,竞争实力较弱的本地城市商业银行的分支机构数量减少。(4)外资银行的资产规模对内资银行业的促进效应存在异质性。这些结论都证明外资银行开放通过加剧竞争推动了内资银行业的发展。更进一步,本文归纳总结了银行业开放背景下金融安全内涵的演进过程,结合实证研究结果、银行业发展现状分析论证了统筹银行业开放与金融安全的可能性,并提出了我国银行业对外开放高质量发展阶段的政策建议。

China has the largest banking market all over the world nowadays.China proposed the goal of building a nation with a strong financial sector in 2023,among which opening-up is a key policy for the development of the financial sector.Opening-up of the banking market has picked up speed since 2018,especially in recent years with the deepening of reforms.The financial market in China is dominated by the banking market,while its opening-up is essential for the financial market.However,the performance of foreign banks has been subpar,as indicated by their holding less than 2%of the total banking assets in 2023,which prompts some researchers to question the benefits of opening-up of the banking market.As a result,it is essential to clarify the role of opening-up of the banking market,which can cast light on how to build China into a nation with a strong financial sector.We find that opening-up of the banking market may intensify the competition and advance its development in China.We review the reform process in the banking market,and illustrate the transition from protective opening-up to institutional opening-up in China.Opening-up of the banking market is essential for enhancing the supply-side structural reform and development of the financial sector,which helps achieve high-quality economic growth.We employ the number of branches at the city level from 1999 to 2013 to examine the impact of opening-up on the banking market in the context of China’s accession to the WTO in 2001.We find that the number of foreign banks with RMB business can increase the number of branches of domestic banks at the city level,while introducing foreign banks with RMB business for the first time has a similar effect,which substantiates both intensive and extensive margins of foreign bank entry.Our results remain robust to the control of regional economic indicators,banking market concentration,and city and year fixed effects,and to instrumental variable regressions.In addition,the number of branches of five stateowned banks,joint stock banks and non-local city commercial banks increases,while the number of branches of local city commercial banks decreases.Moreover,we also find a heterogeneous effect of asset sizes of foreign banks,that is,foreign banks with larger total assets exert a more pronounced driving effect on domestic banks.These results suggest that foreign banks can facilitate the development of domestic banks by intensifying the competition in the banking market in China.We further illustrate the coordination of opening-up and safety in the banking market.Opening-up may aid domestic banks in enhancing their competitiveness,which can strengthen financial safety.The Chinese economy has entered a stage of high-quality development since 2018,while the financial system accumulates some risks in the context of volatile international market environment.We propose that foreign banks’advantage in risk management can spill over to domestic banks in China,which can enhance their competitiveness accordingly.Also,we can improve the regulatory framework to deal with financial risks,which alleviates the risks brought by opening-up of the banking market.We finally illustrate policy implications for advancing the development of the banking market in China.First,we can enhance the publicity work for opening-up of the banking market,which can attract foreign banks to China.Second,we can enhance communication with international financial institutions and coordination with international financial regulatory authorities.Third,we should provide a level playing field for foreign banks in China.Fourth,we should enhance the stability,transparency and consistency of opening-up policies and regulatory policies for the banking market,which can reduce the compliance cost and operation uncertainty for foreign banks.Fifth,we should improve the legal framework on data safety for banks,and build platforms for the cross-border data flow.Finally,we should enhance the coordination between financial opening-up and regulation to achieve a balance between market players and financial authorities.