财政转移支付的再分配效率及共同富裕效应

Redistributive Efficiency and the Common Prosperity Effect of Fiscal Transfers

本文以低收入相对贫困人口为研究对象,创新性地引入分段识别方法,并在加总综合指数过程中分步引入时间因素和不平等厌恶系数,构建了具有可加性、可分解性和分配敏感性的长期相对贫困指数,进而将其分解为适合动态测度低收入人口相对贫困状态与收入分配关联性的系列指数。实证分析部分,本文采用CFPS调查数据,在识别长期相对贫困对象的基础上,分解测度了财政转移支付对低收入人口的长期再分配效率与共同富裕效应。研究发现:我国低收入人口的相对贫困发生率在2010—2020年下降了13.67%,但目前仍处于较高水平。与农村相比,城市低收入人口的长期相对贫困发生率更高、平均贫困持续时间更长,然而农村长期相对贫困家庭的不平等程度更高。进一步分析发现,财政转移支付的再分配具有累进性,对长期相对贫困家庭产生了“减贫—溢出—赋能”的多重效应,且在改善总体不平等程度的同时,使低收入人口的收入增长率高于平均水平,从而产生共同富裕效应。

Fiscal transfers serve as a crucial policy instrument for the government to mitigate income inequality and improve income distribution.While China has eradicated absolute poverty based on current income thresholds and is making progress towards the goal of common prosperity,a significant portion of the population continues to experience relative poverty.Effectively targeting low-income populations in relative poverty is essential for enhancing the efficiency of fiscal transfers,enabling the poor to share the benefits of economic development and contributing to the realization of common prosperity.The criteria for defining relative poverty remain controversial in the existing literature,and methodological frameworks for constructing composite poverty index are still underdeveloped.Additionally,several studies have overlooked the inequality and dynamic characteristics of intertemporal relative poverty changes.This study applies the concept of common prosperity to theoretically reassess the dynamics and inequality of relative poverty,contributing to the literature in the following aspects.First,to refine Foster’s(2007)identification method,which is insensitive to the distribution of poverty duration,this study introduces an innovative“segmented identification”approach and fully considers the impact of past poverty experiences.Second,to address the decomposability limitation identified by Gradín et al.(2012),this paper develops an aggregation method that moves from the individual to the aggregate level by incorporating poverty persistence and inequality aversion coefficients.This refinement allows the newly created composite index to incorporate both additivity and decomposability,offering a more straightforward economic interpretation of the relationship between relative poverty and income distribution.Third,drawing on Beckerman’s(1979)method for assessing the efficiency of fiscal transfers in reducing absolute poverty at specific time points,this paper extends the framework to a dynamic context using tracking survey data.Based on the identification of relative poverty,we further evaluate redistributive efficiency in terms of“poverty reduction,spillover,and empowerment”,and propose the concept of“the common prosperity effect”.Empirical analysis utilizing six waves of the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data from 2010 to 2020 yields several key findings.Firstly,relative poverty incidence in China decreased by 13.67%over the decade.Although relative poverty incidence in China is lower than that in some developing countries,it is higher than that in developed countries,indicating potential for further reduction.Second,urban regions have higher persistent relative poverty incidence and longer average poverty duration compared to rural areas in China,with the scale and duration of poverty being the primary contributors to the higher composite index.In contrast,while rural areas experience lower persistent relative poverty incidence,greater income disparity among poor rural households leads to higher inequality.Further analysis reveals that fiscal transfers are progressively redistributive for low-income households and significantly reduce persistent relative poverty through“poverty reduction,spillover,and empowerment”effects.Moreover,fiscal transfers not only reduce inequality but also accelerate income growth for the relatively poor,making the income growth of the population below 35%(40%or 50%)percentile faster than that of all residents(the common prosperity effect).The findings of this study indicate that academic research should prioritize the construction and decomposition of the relative poverty index based on poverty theory,to more accurately capture the intrinsic relationship between relative poverty and inequality among low-income populations.The persistent relative poverty index developed in this paper provides both a theoretical and methodological foundation for evaluating the efficiency of fiscal transfers,facilitating a more rigorous assessment of their impact on common prosperity.Furthermore,since the urban-rural income disparities and a relative poverty incidence still hold the potential for further decline in China,the government should strengthen the regulation and precision of public policies,eliminating institutional barriers that hinder the advancement of both urban and rural residents.At the same time,the government should focus on constructing a social structure characterized by an“oliveshaped”income distribution,ensuring equal opportunities for low-income populations and promoting urban-rural integration to achieve common prosperity.